October NFP employment came in at 150K (below consensus 180K), private NFP at 99K (vs 158K consensus). Here’s the picture of business cycle indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC, along with S&PGMI’s (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monthly GDP:
Category Archives: recession
“We are in a soft recession right now”
That is Stephen Moore, on June 27, 2022. He further notes: “Moore pointed to the GDP data on Monday, noting that the “first six months of the year have been negative for growth.” Here are the data around that time.
GDP in Q3: Relative to Nowcasts, and Alternative Estimates
GDP surges, at 4.9%, compared to 4.3% Bloomberg consensus, and 5.4% from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow (It’s about a point less than the seemingly over-optimistic GDPNow of two month’s ago (8/24)). Jim’s post yesterday discusses the implications for recession calls, as well as for the macrostabilization (inflation reduction to target). Here’s a picture of where the advance estimate placed GDP, relative to nowcasts and forecasts.
“Consumer spending is up, saving is down. What does this mean for the economy?”
That’s the title of today’s segment on WPR’s Central Time, where I was the Dean Knetter’s guest. In my view, the reason why the economy has proved so durable thus far is in large part attributable to the resilience of the consumer, buoyed by Covid era transfer payments. With the path of disposable income higher than thought just a month ago, consumption has been higher, and — with the saving rate lower in the context of a tight labor market — the cushion of “excess savings” larger.
Does the Confidence Index Say We’re in a Recession?
Title of last Conference Board post on the index reads: “Expectations Index Declined for the Second Straight Month, Sinking Back Below Recession Threshold”. Here’s a picture of this index, compared against the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index.
The GDP Outlook: Now and Near Future
The October WSJ forecast survey is out. The mean forecast is for no downturn (no 2-quarter negative growth). It’s also a lot higher than three months ago.
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-October
Industrial and manufacturing production surprise on the upside (0.3% m/m vs. 0.1% consensus, 0.4% vs. 0.1% respectively), with August growth revised up. Here is a picture of key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC as well as monthly GDP (SPGMI) and GDPNow (at 5.4% q/q SAAR as of today).
Inversions, Bear Steepening Dis-Inversions, and Recessions
Does it matter if spreads are dis-inverting because short yields are falling, or long yields are rising? MacKenzie and McCormick (Bloomberg) say yes. With long yields rising…
The Employment Situation Release and Business Cycle Indicators
With September employment reported today (336K vs. 170K Bloomberg consensus), we have the following picture of the economy.
Business Cycle Indicators at October’s Start
With monthly GDP reported today, we have the following picture of the economy.