Today we are fortunate to be able to present a guest contribution written by Rashad Ahmed (Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, US Treasury). The views presented are solely those of the author, and do not necessarily represent the views of the US Treasury, or any other organizations the author is affiliated with.
Category Archives: recession
Business Cycle Indicators, with New Employment Numbers
Continued, albeit slowing, employment growth yields the following picture of key variables followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (plus monthly GDP, and GDPNow).
Is It Safe? Considering the End of the Recession Call
Apologies to Laurence Olivier in “Marathon Man”. Derek Thomson of the Atlantic describes “How the Recession Doomers Got the U.S. Economy so Wrong”. Personally, I don’t think we should take the recession scenario off the table, despite the recent spate of good data. First, term spread models implied a downturn/recession in the 4th quarter of 2023 (using a 50% threshold), and we’re still in the 3rd quarter. Second, these data are going to be revised — and GDP in particular will be heavily revised.
Business Cycle Indicators, at the Beginning of August
Consensus July employment growth at 200K, June GDPNow rises 0.5% m/m, and GDPNow at 3.9% q/q AR.
Guest Contribution: “Isn’t this what a soft landing would look like?”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Growth Prospects: July WSJ Survey
The slowdown keeps on being moved back — according to consensus — to Q4. Mean forecast is for only one quarter of negative growth, but median has two (Q3, Q4).
Business Cycle Indicators at Mid-July 2023
Industrial production surprises on the downside (-0.5% vs. 0% Bloomberg consensus m/m), as does manufacturing (-0.3% vs. 0% m/m). Here’s the picture of key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC, along with monthly GDP (SPGMI), as well as GDPNow (Q2 up by 10 bps relative to 7/10).
Recession within the Next 12 Months?
Down, from WSJ survey (as noted in article):
Business Cycle Indicators as Employment Growth Decelerates
Nonfarm payroll employment surprises on the downside, while preceding months are revised down. Here’s the picture of key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC, along with monthly GDP (SPGMI).
Two Quarters of Negative GDP Growth Do Not (Necessarily) a Recession Make, Part MMXXVI
From CEPR-EABCN’s Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee (June 30 meeting), “Not Every Downturn Is a Recession”