Apologies to Laurence Olivier in “Marathon Man”. Derek Thomson of the Atlantic describes “How the Recession Doomers Got the U.S. Economy so Wrong”. Personally, I don’t think we should take the recession scenario off the table, despite the recent spate of good data. First, term spread models implied a downturn/recession in the 4th quarter of 2023 (using a 50% threshold), and we’re still in the 3rd quarter. Second, these data are going to be revised — and GDP in particular will be heavily revised.
Category Archives: recession
Business Cycle Indicators, at the Beginning of August
Consensus July employment growth at 200K, June GDPNow rises 0.5% m/m, and GDPNow at 3.9% q/q AR.
Guest Contribution: “Isn’t this what a soft landing would look like?”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Growth Prospects: July WSJ Survey
The slowdown keeps on being moved back — according to consensus — to Q4. Mean forecast is for only one quarter of negative growth, but median has two (Q3, Q4).
Business Cycle Indicators at Mid-July 2023
Industrial production surprises on the downside (-0.5% vs. 0% Bloomberg consensus m/m), as does manufacturing (-0.3% vs. 0% m/m). Here’s the picture of key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC, along with monthly GDP (SPGMI), as well as GDPNow (Q2 up by 10 bps relative to 7/10).
Recession within the Next 12 Months?
Down, from WSJ survey (as noted in article):
Business Cycle Indicators as Employment Growth Decelerates
Nonfarm payroll employment surprises on the downside, while preceding months are revised down. Here’s the picture of key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC, along with monthly GDP (SPGMI).
Two Quarters of Negative GDP Growth Do Not (Necessarily) a Recession Make, Part MMXXVI
From CEPR-EABCN’s Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee (June 30 meeting), “Not Every Downturn Is a Recession”
Business Cycle Indicators at June’s End
With today’s spending and income release, we have this picture of key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (consumption, income, sales), along with monthly GDP. Atlanta Fed has also released a new nowcast of GDP.
“The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve, Factors and Foreign Interest Rates for Economic Activity across Countries”
Presentation of paper by coauthor Laurent Ferrara and myself, today at International Symposium on Forecasting 2023…