Michael Kiley (FRB) has recently circulated a working paper showing that various indicators have greater predictive power at different horizons. Other papers have shown this for different term spreads, for credit spreads, foreign term spreads; in this case, Kiley shows unemployment and inflation have more predictive power at long horizons than short.
Category Archives: recession
IMF WEO on US GDP
The IMF’s World Economic Outlook January update is out, with some slight upward revisions to world output projection growth for 2023, and more so to US and China. Here’s the US projection.
Term Spread Recession Forecasts for January 2024
Plain vanilla probit models indicate a high probability of recession, especially using the 10yr-3mo spread:
GDP, GDP+, and GDO(?) for Q4
According to some aggregate measure, there was a slowdown in 2022H1, but GDP+ says not.
Business Cycle Indicators as of end-January 2023 and Q1 Nowcasts
With the release of December 2022 consumption and personal income, and November real manufacturing and trade industry sales, plus Q4 GDP, we have the following picture of business cycle indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, along with IHS Markit monthly GDP:
Weekly Macro Indicators thru 1/14/2023
Weekly indicators from Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) Weekly Economic Indicators, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI and Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker through 1/14/2023, released yesterday.
“…Beneath the Stock Market’s Surface”
“Inflation begins to slow, signaling lower costs for consumers”
My colleague Kenneth West did a long interview on inflation, interest rates, and recession, on Wisconsin Public Radio’s Central Time on Monday [audio]
Recession Tales from the WSJ January Survey?
Here’s the outlook for GDP:
Nowcasts as of January 10th
Nowcast from Atlanta Fed (GDPNow) plus tracking from GS out today.