From the Philadelpha Fed, coincident index 3 month growth rates, through June 2022:
Category Archives: recession
In These Times: Advance to 3rd GDP Growth Rates
The quarter-on-quarter growth rate for Q2 at 0.9% was below consensus by 1.3 ppts (SAAR), but above GDPNow and IHS-Markit (0.4 ppts, 0.5 ppts respectively). While the mean revision for advance to third release is essentially zero over the 1996-2020 period (see BEA), over the last 5 quarters (2021Q1-22Q1), they have been 1.9 ppts (MAR 12.9 ppts, RMSR 6.8 ppts). That is, the characteristics of revisions from advance to 3rd seem to have changed (although I’ve not done a test for statistical significance), with the advance being revised upward over releases.
Additional Perspective on the GDP Release
Here are some some observations to complement Jim’s post on the GDP release .
Is this a recession?
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP fell at a 0.9% annual rate in the first quarter. That makes two quarters in a row of falling real GDP, which is one rule of thumb for declaring the economy to be in a recession. The current economic weakness could certainly develop into a recession. But the evidence isn’t convincing that a recession is already under way.
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Business Cycle Indicators as of July 27th
Here are some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee. I’ve added civilian employment to the set of indicators. Below are the trends over the recession and recovery to date, with some guesses for June consumption, May & June sales (since numbers are released on 7/29) and July employment (released on 8/5).
Nowcasts and Forecasts of 2022Q2 GDP Growth
These pertain to advance release numbers coming out tomorrow, recalling that they will be revised two times before end-September, as new data comes in. A slight change in views since 5 days ago.
The Two Quarter GDP Decline of 1947
Using latest vintages of data:
Erasing the 2001 Recession
Here are data around 2001, for GDP, employment, industrial production, manufacturing and trade industry sales, personal income. Note: no consecutive quarters of negative growth, as in the Chris Cillizza rule.
Chris Cillizza, Ill-informed Non-Economist, on the Definition of a Recession
A reader refers me to a non-economist for *the* definition of a recession, in this YouTube video of a CNN segment (highlighting once again why I don’t typically watch YouTube videos), Regarding the recent CEA article on the definition of a recession, CNN commentator Chris Cillizza states:
Does a Downturn in Household Survey Employment Better Presage a Recession than One in the Establishment Survey?
I sometimes see this assertion. It clearly has relevance given the pattern we have as of June 2022 data. The red arrows indicate local maxima.