A reader refers me to a non-economist for *the* definition of a recession, in this YouTube video of a CNN segment (highlighting once again why I don’t typically watch YouTube videos), Regarding the recent CEA article on the definition of a recession, CNN commentator Chris Cillizza states:
Category Archives: recession
Does a Downturn in Household Survey Employment Better Presage a Recession than One in the Establishment Survey?
I sometimes see this assertion. It clearly has relevance given the pattern we have as of June 2022 data. The red arrows indicate local maxima.
Nowcast Errors – Atlanta vs. St. Louis
Reader Steven Kopits seems to think the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow is the only nowcast of relevance. There are actually quite a few, from the tracking GDPs from consulting firms (e.g., IHS Markit formerly Macroeconomic Advisers) to Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, etc. However, for illustrative purposes, here is an easy to do comparison (since the data are at FRED) for nowcasts just before the advance release.
World Trade, through Trump’s Trade War, Covid/Recession, Russian Aggression
From the Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), world trade volume through April 2022:
GDP Nowcasts
GDPNow at -1.6%, St. Louis Fed News index at +4%, IHS-Markit at -2.0%, and Goldman Sachs at 0.5%. Bloomberg consensus at +0.4% (all q/q SAAR).
If We End Up Talking about the Global Recession of 2023, What/Who Will We Blame?
As forecasts are marked down (IMF releases new forecasts on Tuesday), here in two pictures is my answer:
So You Think We’re in a Recession Right Now? (Part VI)
Guest Contribution: “The US Q2 GDP Announcement Will Not Mean Recession”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Inflation, Gasoline, Recession
I was on WPR’s Central Time today, discussing among other things: “Gas and oil prices are starting to come back down. We explore what that means for inflation and fears of a recession.”
Term Spreads Falling
And negative at the 2s10s: