Follow up to “So you think we’re in a recession as of beginning August”…and rejoinder to those who believe we’ve already been in recession for a while.
Category Archives: recession
So You Think We’re In a Recession as of Beginning August
We’re roughly a month into Q3. Here’s a view, written a week ago:
…based on the indicators I track, yes, I think we are in continuing recession, and I expect a hard reset of the economy in H2.
So You Think We’re In a Recession as of End-July – UI Initial Claims Edition
Some observers argue the rise in unemployment insurance claims signals we are in, or soon to be, in a recession (e.g., [1]). Here’s an alternative view (A follow up on “So you think we might be in a recession today” Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V, Part VI, as well as “So you think we might be in recession as of mid-June”, Part I and Part II, and “So you think we might be in a recession as of mid-July”.)
A Short Note on Idiotic Comments
Reader Steven Kopits writes:
So You Think We’re in a Recession as of Mid-July?
Employment situation release data for July, and Weekly data and Google/big data through July 29th, on the US economy (follow up on Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V, Part VI, as well as “So you think we might be in recession as of mid-June”, Part I and Part II) – a rejoinder to a reader’s view expressed (yesteroday!yesterday – [my mistake – MDC]) “based on the indicators I track, yes, I think we are in continuing recession, and I expect a hard reset of the economy in H2.”
CBO Assessment on a Current Recessionary Environment
From CBO:
Heavy Truck Sales and Vehicle Miles Traveled Growth As Coincident Indicators
Calculated Risk reminds me that heavy truck sales is something that collapses during recessions. I wondered how the 12 month change in this variable compare against the corresponding change in vehicle miles traveled (suggested by Steven Kopits). The latter does pretty lousy.
Guest Contribution: “Flashing signs of recession”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Filippo Natoli and Fabrizio Venditti of the Directorate General for Economics, Statistics and Research of the Bank of Italy. The views presented in this note represent those of the author and not necessarily reflect those of the Bank of Italy.
Term Spreads, Financial Conditions, Oil and Probit-based Recession Probabilities
With July in, it’s interesting to note that elevated probabilities of recession in 12 months come not from spreads, nor financial conditions, but oil prices.
A Peak in 2021 Q4? Business Cycle Indicators at the Beginning of August
If one took GDP as the determinant of NBER determined business cycles, this is what the picture would look like (normalizing on mid-Q4):