Here is a snapshot of yield curves at the beginning of March of four years, and as of today.
Category Archives: recession
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-May
With the release of industrial production (1.1% m/m vs. 0.5% Bloomberg consensus; mfg 0.8% vs. 0.4% consensus), we have the April reading for another key indicator followed by the NBER BCDC.
Guest Contribution: “The Surprising Drop in French Economic Activity “
Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Laurent Ferrara (Professor of International Economics, SKEMA Business School, Paris, and Chair of the French Business Cycle Dating Committee).
Monthly GDP and Other Business Cycle Indicators
With the release of IHS-Markit monthly GDP, we have the following graph of key indicators noted by NBER BCDC.
Sovereign Debt Crisis or Oil in the Euro Area Recession of 2011-13
Conventional wisdom (sovereign debt crisis and austerity measures) or oil as cause? Steven Kopits says oil:
The cause of a brutal recession in Europe during Q4 2011 – Q1 2013 remains unexplained in policy circles. Or more precisely, the proposed explanation is less than compelling. … oil prices once again returned to high levels, with Brent regularly in the $100 – 115 range. With this, oil consumption in both the US and Europe began to decline, and such declines in oil consumption due to high prices — normally characterized as an oil shock — invariably leads to recession. … to suggest a Greek financial crisis could cause a recession in Europe is not entirely convincing. Greece’s GDP is all of 2% of that of the EU. It would be like a financial crisis in Indiana taking down the US economy. Conceivable, but it does not jump out at you.
Term Spread Models and Recession Probabilities for April 2023
Worries about recession are rising:
Why did U.S. real GDP fall?
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP fell at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter. What does this portend?
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Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-April
Key indicators noted by NBER BCDC, including Friday release of industrial production for March – continuing upward progress.
Oil Prices, Price Surprises, and Forwards, Breakevens, and Term Spreads
First, what are current one month and 1 month forward 2 months doing?
10yr-3mo Term Spreads and Probit Model Recession Forecasts: Germany, UK, Canada vs. US
For the US, Germany, UK and Canada: