There was a noisy minority of analysts thinking we were in, or imminently in, recession (see a list here). It’ll be interesting to see how those views are revised. However, as I noted, while the data was not supportive of being in a recession as of October, three possibilities could reconcile observations with such views: (1) the model is wrong, (2) the recession is here, but we don’t know it, or (3) the recession is still to come.
Category Archives: recession
Recession after the Election?
Charles Payne joins the recession camp.
Business Cycle Indicators as of November’s Start
Employment for October and monthly GDP for September, in the set of variables followed by the NBER’s BCDC:
“The Economy would grow under Harris. Under Trump, expect higher prices and debt.”
By Menzie Chinn and Mark Copelovitch
A Harris administration is far less likely to disrupt the ongoing and unprecedented American economic recovery of the last three years with stark policy reversals. This is an expanded version of an op-ed published in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
Business Cycle Indicators – GDP, Private NFP and Other NBER Key Indicators
GDP under Bloomberg consensus of 3.0% at 2.8% (GDPNow nails it); see Jim’s post yesterday. ADP private NFP change at 233K vs. Bloomberg consensus at 110K. Nominal personal income at consensus, consumption at 0.5% m/m vs. 0.4% consensus.
GDP Nowcasts/Tracking Down: What Does This Mean?
Never just look the headline number. The “why’s” matter. GDPNow down from 3.3% q/q AR to 2.8%, while GS tracking at 3.0%
Revised Paper: No, We Haven’t Been in a Recession since 2022
EJ Antoni and Peter St. Onge argue we have been deceived by incorrect deflators. Rebuttal, showing the irreproducibility of their results, and non-deflator sensitive indicators, downloadable here, with new data.
The Leading Economic Index, The Term Spread, and Historical Correlations
I’ve updated the “regression camp” membership list. Assuming no recession shows up (hear Cam Harvey talk about the issue), what can we take from the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index returning to recession territory (it’s spent much of the last 18 months there):
New Paper: No, We Haven’t Been in a Recession since 2022
Downloadable here.
CatholicVote: “Two economists reported that after adjusting government statistics to more accurately measure inflation, it became clear that the country has been in a recession for the past two years under the Biden-Harris administration”
That’s the title of this article.