In a recent paper, Antoni and St. Onge (2024) have argued that the peak in GDP, properly measured, was in 2021Q4.
Category Archives: recession
Nowcasts, Weekly Indicators, and Additions to the “Recession Camp”
Nowcasts for NY and St. Louis Feds out today; St. Louis up from 1.14% to 1.73% q/q AR. NY Fed, and GS tracking unchanged at 3.2%.
No Recession in 2022H1: Edition MMMXXVII
Reader Steven Kopits writes:
Two down quarters in 2021. Typical definition of a recession. I don’t believe I have declared a recession since.
EJ Antoni/Heritage Foundation (Aug 5): “I would not be surprised if a recession is backdated to July or the current month”
From FoxNews. Here’s a picture of indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC over the past year. Note that August numbers are mostly up.
State of the Macro Economy, 10/6/2024: 19 Indicators and 4 Nowcasts
NBER BCDC indicators, alternative indicators, weekly indicators, nowcasts. As one who noted the high likelihood of recession by August 2024, I can’t see a downturn in the current vintages of (preliminary) data.
Business Cycle Indicators – with September Employment
The recovery continues, with a recession hard to see (even incorporating the preliminary benchmark revision without caveat). A snapshot of indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP.
In Real Time, Does a Downturn in Household Survey Employment Better Presage a Recession than One in the Establishment Survey?
Here’s the current situation:
Business Cycle Indicators – August Monthly GDP
Here’s a snapshot of key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, along with SPGMI’s monthly GDP.
Manufacturing in Recession? (Revisited)
High frequency indicators (PMI, etc.) suggest — and have suggested — a slowdown in manufacturing. Still, other indicators indicate sideways trending. Here’s a picture, incorporating the just-available manufacturing value added for Q2, as well employment incorporating the preliminary benchmark revision.
Business Cycle Indicators – August 2024 and Annual Updates
Still hard to see the recession in (preliminary) August 2024 data.