EJ Antoni (Heritage) is dubious about GDPNow’s (and other nowcasts) regarding Q3 growth. From X aka Twitter today:
Category Archives: recession
Mid-October Reading on Business Cycle Indicators – NBER BCDC and Alternatives
Industrial and manufacturing production below consensus (-0.3% m/m vs -0.1%, -0.4% vs -0.1%, respectively), while retail sales and core retail sales above consensus (+0.4% m/m vs +0.3%, +0.5% vs +0.1%, respectively). Here’s the resulting two pictures, first one for those indicators followed by the NBER BCDC, and the second one alternatives.
Recession since 2022? A Magic Asterisk-Mystery Meat-Special Sauce Approach to National Income Accounting
In a recent paper, Antoni and St. Onge (2024) have argued that the peak in GDP, properly measured, was in 2021Q4.
Nowcasts, Weekly Indicators, and Additions to the “Recession Camp”
Nowcasts for NY and St. Louis Feds out today; St. Louis up from 1.14% to 1.73% q/q AR. NY Fed, and GS tracking unchanged at 3.2%.
No Recession in 2022H1: Edition MMMXXVII
Reader Steven Kopits writes:
Two down quarters in 2021. Typical definition of a recession. I don’t believe I have declared a recession since.
EJ Antoni/Heritage Foundation (Aug 5): “I would not be surprised if a recession is backdated to July or the current month”
From FoxNews. Here’s a picture of indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC over the past year. Note that August numbers are mostly up.
State of the Macro Economy, 10/6/2024: 19 Indicators and 4 Nowcasts
NBER BCDC indicators, alternative indicators, weekly indicators, nowcasts. As one who noted the high likelihood of recession by August 2024, I can’t see a downturn in the current vintages of (preliminary) data.
Business Cycle Indicators – with September Employment
The recovery continues, with a recession hard to see (even incorporating the preliminary benchmark revision without caveat). A snapshot of indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP.
In Real Time, Does a Downturn in Household Survey Employment Better Presage a Recession than One in the Establishment Survey?
Here’s the current situation:
Business Cycle Indicators – August Monthly GDP
Here’s a snapshot of key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, along with SPGMI’s monthly GDP.