The CBO has been providing nonpartisan budgetary and economic analyses for four decades. Whether that continues depends upon the willingness of leaders in Congress believe in the worth of serious analysis (see here for doubts). For now, we look back and (hopefully) forward, at events today. Yesterday, a forum at the Brookings Institution presented some additional views. Director Doug Elmendorf blogs on the anniversary today.
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All the Governor’s Men (Economists)
Paul Krugman notes Governor Walker’s advisers on economics at a recent meeting are Larry Kudlow, Stephen Moore and Arthur Laffer. These folks make appearances in the Econbrowser archives.
The Economic Report of the President, 2015
The entire report was released today, covering the “…progress of the recovery and explores the long-term factors that drive middle-class incomes,…the macroeconomic performance of the U.S. economy during 2014, …the opportunities and challenges facing the U.S. labor market, …how American family lives have changed over the last half-century and the implications of these changes for our labor market, …productivity growth with an examination of business tax reform, ..the profound transformation of the U.S. energy sector” and “…the United States in the context of the global economy.”
CEA Chair Jason Furman, CEA Members Maurice Obstfeld, and Betsey Stevenson summarize the report’s findings here.
Responding to the Proposed Cuts to Wisconsin Higher Education
Assuming there are no other “drafting errors” in the Governor’s proposed budget for higher education, then the plan, if implemented, for a $300 million reduction in funding for the UW system, combined with a two year tuition freeze, has the following implications for the Madison campus of the University of Wisconsin.
Politically Directed Higher Education
From the NY Times today:
… They are out there, hiding in library stacks, whispering in lecture halls, armed with dangerous textbooks and subversive pop quizzes…
Ed Lazear Comments on Government Forecasts
Or, the self-rehabilitation effort continues. In a WSJ op-ed entitled “Government Forecasters Might as Well Use a Ouija Board”, he writes:
My analysis of 1999-2013 reveals that the CBO’s real GDP growth forecasts for the next year were off, on average, by 1.7 percentage points, either too high or low. Administration forecasts were similarly off by a slightly larger 1.8 percentage points on average, also to high or too low. Given that the average growth rate during this period was only 2.1%, errors of this magnitude are substantial.
Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development Determines $7.25/hour Is a Living Wage
From Jason Stein in today’s Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:
The state law requires that Wisconsin’s minimum wage “shall not be less than a living wage.” …
A living wage is defined under the law as “reasonable comfort, reasonable physical well-being, decency and moral well-being.”
Thank Goodness Wisconsin Turned Down High Speed Rail!
From “Fast trains, supply networks, and firm performance” in VoxEU:
We find that sales and measured productivity rose substantially for firms near the new (high speed rail) stations after the opening. Firms in industries with greater purchased input shares outperformed firms in industries with lower purchased input shares.
So Wisconsin dodged the fate of having higher firm productivity.
The report is authored by Bernard, Moxnes, and Saito.
Update, 10/1 12:26PM Pacific: And here is the IMF’s assessment of the role of infrastructure investment. Not that I expect it to convince all the folks who think we should privatize all roads, airports, harbors, and train service…
Interpreting the Yield Curve: Some Pictures
Recently Jim highlighted the odd behavior of the various Treasury term premia. Here are some additional thoughts.
First, from “Debt market goes off script” in the WSJ:
Wisconsin Employment Trends in Context
Following up on last Thursday’s post, here is a depiction of how Wisconsin and Kansas — ALEC darlings — fare against Minnesota and California.