Atlanta Fed nowcast at 3.4% q/q SAAR:
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Disposition of Forces in Kherson Oblast, 28 Nov 2022
Here’s a picture from late yesterday:
Source: as of 28 Nov, militaryland.net, accessed 29 Nov 2022.
See latest report from ISW for context.
The “Trap” Closes: Kherson, 11/11/2022
Remember the question a skeptical JohnH asked on 9/2/2022, about the Ukrainian offensive? Here’s the answer:
Prediction Markets on Control of the Senate: 11/11/22
Looks like the betting is on Democratic control.
Prediction Market on Senate Conrol: Democratic at 93%
By simple addition of bets on 50 seats or less for Republicans — at 1030am Eastern Time, from PredictIt:
Balance of Forces, Kherson Oblast on 31 October 2022
As of 23:00 hrs (GMT+2) on 10/31 (Militaryland.net):
LNG Contribution to Goods Exports (Balance of Payments Basis)
Two Days before GDP Q3 Release: What Remains of the 2022H1 Recession Thesis?
Monthly indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus GDP and GDO, plus IHS-Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monthly GDP:
“How is that trap working out?”
That’s the question a skeptical JohnH asked 7 weeks ago, about the Ukrainian offensive. The answer seems to be “pretty well”.
Nowcasting and More: “The 24th Federal Forecasters Conference”
The Federal Forecasters Consortium conference took place a month ago, but the video links are now up,
- Morning announcements and Fred Joutz Retrospective (Fred discussion starts at 17:50) [slides]
- Invited Panel Session Dr. Baoline Chen (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis), Dr. Neil Mehrotra (U.S. Department of the Treasury), Dr. Jason Schachter (U.S. Census Bureau), moderated by Neil R. Ericsson (Federal Reserve Board).
- Special Afternoon Session: Simple vs. Complex Chaired by Kevin Dubina. “Thinking through the pros and cons” by Anne Morse; “Evidence from Forecasting Competitions” by Neil R. Ericsson; “Why do projections?” by Maria Hussain