In economics. Reader JohnH disparages attempts to measure r* (and r* plus expected inflation):
Question is, would anyone recognize the neutral rate if it stared them right in the face? And if it could be identified, would it be wearing its real face, a nominal one, or a “natural” one?
On mainstream economists hiding information regarding the BEA’s development of distributional national accounts, reader John Hofer wrote in January of 2024:
Here’s a plot to economic sentiment as recorded by the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, by political affiliation:
Follow up to Is Velocity Stable? Part MXXVI. With data up to 2023Q4, the answer remains “no”.
Rising in 2023Q4:
That’s from ZeroHedge. Contra, here are some data.
GDP, employment, manufacturing, debt, unemployment, etc.
How sensitive are economic sentiments as measured by the University of Michigan survey, depending upon party affiliation? Apparently, over the period of the Biden administration, it’s higher for Democrat and lean-Democrat.
Economic growth slightly below trend.
Reader Steven Kopits (who doesn’t know what a confidence interval is formally defined as, and thought no more than 300-400 people died in Hurricane Maria) urges me to write a paper with the above title.