Another update of The Data Will Set You Free , so you won’t go around quoting Zerohedge.
Category Archives: Uncategorized
The Hit to the Russian Economy, Internally Assessed
How Do We Know this Photo Was Actually Taken at Mar-a-Lago?
(Rejoinder to all the conspiracy nuts who will say this photo was taken elsewhere)
“AFFIDAVIT IN SUPPORT OF AN APPLICATION UNDER RULE 41 FOR A WARRANT TO SEARCH AND SEIZE “
From WaPo [link added 2pm]:
An FBI affidavit filed prior to the search of former president Donald Trump’s home says agents reviewed 184 classified documents that were kept at the Florida property after he left the White House — including several with Trump’s apparent handwriting on them…
Here’s the redacted affidavit. [link]
The “…recession…of H1 2022”
Some people think we’re in a recession now, some think it’s in the past (we’re currently in H2 2022). In fact some economists surveyed by NABE believe we’re in a recession now (as shown in the chart below). Here’re some reminders of our best estimates of the current macro situation we’re in.
CEPR: “Macroeconomic Policies for Wartime Ukraine”
An e-book with contributions by Torbjörn Becker, Barry Eichengreen, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Sergei Guriev, Simon Johnson, Tymofiy Mylovanov, Maurice Obstfeld, Kenneth Rogoff, and Beatrice Weder di Mauro.
So You Think We’re In a Recession as of Mid-August?
Weekly and daily readings through 8/13:
Looking Back at Q2 – Imminent Upward Revisions?
IHS Markit moves 2022Q2 tracking from -0.3% to -0.2% SAAR today. Goldman Sachs moves from the advance official of -0.9% to -0.4% SAAR. Continue reading
Movement in Prediction Markets
The impact of news, in the past three hours…
Prediction Markets on Congressional Control
Bets on Democratic control of one or both houses of Congress now up to 63%. Big discrete move at the Dobbs decision, then gradual convergence to 50-50 on August 1st, starting in mid-July.