As the pace of growth has picked up, forecasts of ten year Treasury yields have risen as well. Here are some recent ones.
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Temperature Anomaly – Northern Hemisphere
Here’s a time series plot of 12 month moving averages of monthly global temperature anomalies for the northern hemisphere, both for land and ocean (blue) and land (red), (in degree C). Note: June is not included…
Forecasting in Unprecedented Times
Consider the plight of a time series econometrician who wants to do a quick and dirty forecast for the next year, conditioned only on past information on GDP. One might end up with series in the graph below.
Lumber Prices
A wild ride for futures means…
Five Year Breakeven Inflation Expectations
After adjustment for premia, constant over the last three months:
A Logged Look at Bitcoin
If you believe the world is in base e, then this is a better picture of the Bitcoin’s progress.
Wisconsin Employment in April
Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment has stabilized at a level down 4.7% relative to NBER peak in 2020M02, vs. 5.4% for the nation overall (according to figures released by DWD yesterday).
More Nonsense
Interpreting the Labor Market
The employment surprise – demand shortfall, supply constraints, or statistical artefact? I discussed on WPR Central Time yesterday.
Market Based Inflation Expectations at 5 Year Horizon
The simple — conventionally reported — inflation breakeven calculation might be misleading.