Tautologically, yes; maybe not so much if V (velocity) is constant.
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Inflation Looming?
The Economist says unlikely. Surveys and market expectations concur.
The Economic Outlook – WSJ December Survey
No acceleration in growth rates, and short term growth prospects dim, but GDP level higher relative to October — but not November — survey.
Where Are You?
I’m teaching “Macroeconomic Policy” for upper level undergrads this semester. Obviously, the interpretation and suggested conduct of policy depends on how you view the world, which is hard to contextualize simply. But I think annotating this graph works great — and you can ask yourself — “Where am I?” (The “You are here” addresses my students…)
ADP Private Nonfarm Payrolls in November
The increase of 307 thousand in private nonfarm payrolls (as reported by ADP) — under Bloomberg expectations of 410 thousand — suggests further deceleration in employment growth.
“Trifecta”
When the Biden economic team members were announced, I wondered if there was any pattern to discern in the locus of Republican attacks. As far as I can tell, it’s not expertise, it’s not ideological bent, it’s not what school you went to. But here is a Venn diagram to help you identify what makes you a “no-go”.
Business Cycle Indicators as of December 1st
With the release of monthly GDP numbers, we have the following picture of some of the key indicators followed by NBER:
The New Economic Team?
As of 11/29. Can you tell a difference?
Trump’s Trade War by the NIPA Numbers
National Income and Product Accounts numbers that is.
Wisconsin Economic Activity in October
As measured by the Philadelphia Fed coincident index.