Philadelphia Fed’s early benchmark indicates NFP employment is on lower trajectory than indicated by the CES measure, by about 600 thousands. How does this change the picture?
Is Velocity Stable? Part MXXVII (updated, with Divisia MZM added)
Follow up to Is Velocity Stable? Part MXXVI. With data up to 2023Q4, the answer remains “no”.
More on r*
From BIS Quarterly Review, article by G. Benigno, B. Hoffmann, G. Nuno Barrau, and D. Sandri:
Inflation in February
Core CPI surprises (0.4% vs. 0.3% m/m) on the upside, while headline at consensus.
GDP and Treasury Yields in the Administration Forecast
Forecast finalized in November (roughly same time as CBO’s projections, released in February).
And So It Begins (Social Security edition)
At least for today. From CNN:
Real Household Net Worth (from Flow of Funds)
Rising in 2023Q4:
“People … have not faced this kind of uncertainty since the 1930s”
That’s from ZeroHedge. Contra, here are some data.
Monetary Policy Rates around the World
Some pictures for Econ 442, monetary policy module.
Wisconsin Employment Outperforming DoR November Forecast
As the nation outperforms, so too does Wisconsin. Employment exceeds the DoR November forecast.