Reader Bruce Hall notes the extreme jump in debt-to-GDP in 2020 was attributable in part to the public health economic lockdowns, to wit:
But the economic shutdowns certainly affected the equation’s denominator in 2020.
I note that using the counterfactual potential GDP as estimated by CBO does not change the picture substantively – I add the red line to the blue line shown in the previous post.
Monthly GDP declines 7.1 ppts m/m annualized Here’s a picture of key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee plus monthly GDP.
Senatorial candidate Hovde presents this picture.
OMFIF Live broadcast, Wed 06 Mar 2024, 15:00 – 16:00 Eastern Time. Steven Kamin, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and Mark Sobel, OMFIF’s US chair, discuss their paper.
That’s climatologist/macroeconomist/epidemiologist Steven Kopits snarks that I’m worrying about having to wear shorts in Madison on Sunday, when it hit 70 degrees. Just to clarify, global climate change has real implications.
CBO projection and SPF mean forecast diverge, by nearly a percentage point in 2024.
A reader comments on my remarks regarding 70 degrees in Madison, yesterday:
It’s these type of sensationalist posts that don’t help educate or support/facilitate the discussion regarding climate change. It only muddies the discussion as a single day’s weather means close to nothing as it relates to climate change. A denier can easily reference the historical data which is clear that a 70 degree day doesn’t come close to even cracking the top-20 warmest March days in Madison Wisconsin’s history.
From the Americans for Prosperity-Wisconsin:
In the last four years, Biden’s reckless spending has driven the national debt past $34 trillion – more than $258,000 of debt per household – and Americans’ purchasing power has declined as families have seen the prices of goods and services rise much faster than their income. Prices are now 17.9% higher and the average household is paying over $11,400 more each year just to maintain the same quality of life as when Biden took office.
That’s climatologist/macroeconomist/epidemiologist Steven Kopits remarking on 70 degrees F high in Madison today. For context, some historical data from here:
So, my impression that things are warming up is not just me…