That’s the title of a panel discussion at AEI with With Steven B. Kamin moderating, and Jason Furman, Julia Coronado, Nathan Sheets and Desmond Lachman participating.
Four Forecasts and Two Nowcasts
Nowcasts are outstripping forecasts. For now.
GDP Trajectory: The View from Wall Street
The mean forecast trajectory keeps on rising as actual GDP outcomes keep on surprising on the upside (Q4 mean growth rose from 0.9% to 1.7% q/q AR since October), but forecasts are pretty dispersed, as shown in Figure 1.
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-January
Industrial production and manufacturing production both beat Bloomberg consensus (+0.1% vs 0%). Here’s the picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP and GDPNow (latter up today to 2.4% vs. 2.2% SAAR on 1/10).
China Growth Hits Consensus
Russia: Policy Rate Up, Oil Prices Down
Growth prospects in short term are being revised up. But how long can that persist when policy rates rise, oil prices stay low?
Real Wages, Through December (updated)
Average wage for production and nonsupervisory workers in total private and leisure and hospitality services, and implied by median wage growth, all up relative to 2019M12, just before the pandemic. [update and ECI through Q3]
Measuring One Aspect of BRICS De-Dollarization: FX Reserves
Interesting recent article from the Carnegie Endowment, entitled “The Difficult Realities of the BRICS’ Dedollarization Efforts—and the Renminbi’s Role”, by Robert Greene.
Northern Hemisphere – Land Temperature Anomaly, through 2023
From NOAA:
Erasmus University: “The 25th anniversary ECB Symposium”
Taking place on January 16th in Rotterdam, this is the second part of the symposium at the Erasmus School of Economics & Rotterdam School of Management on this topic, organized by Mary Pieterse-Bloem and Sylvester Eijffinger. The first part took place last July.