+74K vs. +110K Bloomberg consensus. My nowcast based on ADP suggested +66K.
ADP Below Consensus – What Does It Mean?
ADP private NFP change came in at -33K, vs. +99K Bloomberg consensus. It’s well known that the ADP series is not particularly helpful for nowcasting the BLS series (coming out tomorrow). But using the relationship between the two series 2022M01-2025M05, what can we expect?
The Return (Again) of Supply Side Economics – CEA Edition
From CRFB on 6/25 “CEA’s Fantastical Economic Assumptions”:
Your Daily Reminder: Prices of Import Competing Goods Rise with Tariffed Imported Goods Prices
As per basic analysis of tariffs. Data through June 26(!).
June FT-Booth Macro Survey: GDP level same as March Survey
Survey results here, FT article . GDP level more optimistic than May SPF.
Policy Uncertainty Spikes
As of today:
Nowcasts and Tracking of “Core GDP”
Various observers (e.g. Furman) have argued for final sales to private domestic purchasers as the best measure of economic momentum. Nowcasts and tracking estimates of this indicator cast into doubt prospects for rapid growth.
Gold: The Challenger to Dollar Reserves?
There’s not much data on individual central bank holdings of the dollar through 2023, but COFER goes through 2024Q4, and gold holdings through 2025Q1.
CEA Unleashed!
From reputable studies, that is. CEA concludes in its report on the OBBB:
$1.3 to $3.7 trillion in additional offsetting deficit reduction from higher growth unleashed by enhanced deregulation and energy policies
“That Drop in Consumer Income in May Was a False Recession Alarm”
That’s the title of an article from yesterday. Maybe, but the drop in consumption spending might be. Also, personal income excluding transfers also decline in May…