Headline and core y/y CPI inflation undershoots slightly Bloomberg consensus (by 0.1%) (and below Cleveland Fed nowcast for headline of 0.4% m/m, see yesterday’s post). Overall, trend is down even if headline y/y is ticks up slightly.
Chinese Inflation in July
Year-on-year CPI inflation goes negative (-0.3% vs. -0.4% consensus), and month-on-month is positive.
CPI Inflation at Annual Rates, using July Nowcast
From Cleveland Fed; and compared to Bloomberg consensus.
Chinese Growth in Question (Again)
Official Chinese statistics indicate 6.3% y/y growth in Q2. Maybe it’s less?
The Downgrade, the Debt Crisis and the Macro Outlook
Join me at 7 p.m. CT on UW Alumni Association’s TheUWNow livestream (via YouTube), where I’ll be joined by Conference Board Chief Economist Dana Peterson in discussing “The US Credit Rating and You” (moderated by Mike Knetter).
A Rolling Recession from a Rolling Expansion?
I see increasing speculation ([1] , [2]) that we might avoid a recession by virtue of having rolling recessions. Usually, the argument is that the slowdowns are hitting different industries, although one could also take a geographical view. Here I discuss both the industry and geographical variation.
“First thing we do, let’s gag all the economists”: China Edition
Apologies (as always) to Shakespeare. From Sun Yu in the FT:
Douglas Irwin: “The Return of Industrial Policy”
From an Finance and Development (June) article, by Douglas Irwin (Dartmouth), author of Clashing over Commerce: A History of U.S. Trade Policy (University of Chicago Press, 2017), Free Trade under Fire (Princeton), and currently President of the Economic History Association.
Wisconsin’s Finest [expletive deleted below]
As a transplant to this state, I am always amazed at what I learn about the people who represent the residents of this state. From “‘Get The F— Out’: Wisconsin Congressman Curses Out High School Pages In Capitol…” (Forbes)
Guest Contribution: “How Political Tensions and Geopolitical Risks Impact Oil Prices”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Jamel Saadaoui (University of Strasbourg). This post is based on the paper coauthored with Valérie Mignon (University of Paris Nanterre).