Reader Steven Kopits (who doesn’t know what a confidence interval is formally defined as, and thought no more than 300-400 people died in Hurricane Maria) urges me to write a paper with the above title.
Recessions Defined and (Maybe) Predicted
Since most of my lecture notes have migrated behind a gate (software called Canvas, used on many campuses), I thought I would share some teaching material that some Econbrowser readers might find of interest.
Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce: “Optimism is falling” in Wisconsin
From the Badger Institute:
The Dollar’s Role as an International Currency
Some recent items: papers by Chinn, Frankel and Ito and Kamin and Sobel; talk by Mark Copelovitch on Tuesday.
On GDP, from the Country That Brought You the Term “Potemkin Village”
Exchange Rate Pass Through into Import Prices, CPI
Justin Ho of Marketplace discussed the implications of the import/export price release Thursday. My view was that pass through into import prices was low in the short run, and even in the long run was not very large, while pass through into the broader price index was unlikely to be large. Not sure I was alone in this view, but here’re my thoughts.
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-February
Industrial production comes in under consensus (-0.1% vs +0.2%). Here’s a picture of the key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC.
Output Gap Measures
Are we at full employment? Here are some estimates:
“The U.S. economy, interest rates, inflation and the possibility of a coming recession”
That’s the topic for The Morning Show on “The Ideas Network”, 8am CT, at
Super Bowl gambling, New STEM museum, Economic forecast, Vocal cord dysfunction
Inflation: January 2024
CPI comes in above consensus, on both headline and core. Instantaneous inflation (per Eeckhout (2023)) has a slight uptick.