With the release of personal consumption and income for October, we have the following picture of key series followed by the NBER BCDC (along with monthly GDP from IHS Markit, formerly from Macroeconomic Advisers).
2022Q3 2nd Release, Alternative Measures of Activity, and a Recession of 2022H1?
Here’s GDP, GDO, and GDP+ through 2022Q3, and monthly indicators through 2022M10. I (still) don’t see a recession in 2022H1.
Disposition of Forces in Kherson Oblast, 28 Nov 2022
Here’s a picture from late yesterday:
Source: as of 28 Nov, militaryland.net, accessed 29 Nov 2022.
See latest report from ISW for context.
“Sky-high [natural] gas prices…”
What is “News”? What is an “Event study”? China Edition
Remarks by a reader indicate it’s worthwhile to recap this topic. Consider:
Guest Contribution: “The Strong Dollar, Global Inflation, and Global Recession”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Steven Kamin (AEI), formerly Director of the Division of International Finance at the Federal Reserve Board. The views presented represent those of the authors, and not necessarily those of the institutions the authors are affiliated with.
Maximum AUROC Term Spreads as of 11/25
In 2019, Fed economist David Miller undertook a comprehensive assessment of term spread predictive power for recessions (There is No Single Best Predictor of Recessions). For the 1984-2018 period, he found the following:
“China markets tank as protests erupt over Covid lockdowns”
From CNN:
China’s major stock indices and its currency have opened sharply lower Monday, as widespread protests against the country’s stringent Covid-19 restrictions over the weekend roiled investor sentiment.
Yin-Wong Cheung: “The RMB in the Global Economy”
From a new book from Cambridge:
Did the Yield Curve Predict a 2022H1 Recession?
No.