Skip to content

Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Business Cycle Indicators at the Beginning of December 2022

With the release of personal consumption and income for October, we have the following picture of key series followed by the NBER BCDC (along with monthly GDP from IHS Markit, formerly from Macroeconomic Advisers).

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on December 1, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

2022Q3 2nd Release, Alternative Measures of Activity, and a Recession of 2022H1?

Here’s GDP, GDO, and GDP+ through 2022Q3, and monthly indicators through 2022M10. I (still) don’t see a recession in 2022H1.

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on November 30, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Disposition of Forces in Kherson Oblast, 28 Nov 2022

Here’s a picture from late yesterday:

Source: as of 28 Nov, militaryland.net, accessed 29 Nov 2022.

See latest report from ISW for context.

This entry was posted on November 29, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

“Sky-high [natural] gas prices…”

Reader JohnH* quotes Politico

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on November 29, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

What is “News”? What is an “Event study”? China Edition

Remarks by a reader indicate it’s worthwhile to recap this topic. Consider:

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on November 29, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Guest Contribution: “The Strong Dollar, Global Inflation, and Global Recession”

Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Steven Kamin (AEI), formerly Director of the Division of International Finance at the Federal Reserve Board. The views presented represent those of the authors, and not necessarily those of the institutions the authors are affiliated with.


Continue reading →

This entry was posted on November 28, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Maximum AUROC Term Spreads as of 11/25

In 2019, Fed economist David Miller undertook a comprehensive assessment of term spread predictive power for recessions (There is No Single Best Predictor of Recessions). For the 1984-2018 period, he found the following:

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on November 28, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

“China markets tank as protests erupt over Covid lockdowns”

From CNN:

China’s major stock indices and its currency have opened sharply lower Monday, as widespread protests against the country’s stringent Covid-19 restrictions over the weekend roiled investor sentiment.

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on November 27, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Yin-Wong Cheung: “The RMB in the Global Economy”

From a new book from Cambridge:

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on November 27, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Did the Yield Curve Predict a 2022H1 Recession?

No.

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on November 24, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Post navigation

← Older posts
Newer posts →

Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

Folow us on Twitter

  • James Hamilton
  • Menzie Chinn

Recent Posts

  • GDP Impact of 87.5K Removals/Yr
  • When “Liberation Day” Replaces “Infrastructure Week” Replaces “Groundhog Day” ™…
  • Business Fixed Investment ex-IIP and Policy Uncertainty
  • Real Time Civilian Employment past Peak?
  • The Age of Angst? Macro Implications

Categories

Archives

Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

Proudly powered by WordPress