Title of last Conference Board post on the index reads: “Expectations Index Declined for the Second Straight Month, Sinking Back Below Recession Threshold”. Here’s a picture of this index, compared against the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index.
Guest Contribution: “China’s Great Leap Backward”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate. The author thanks Sohaib Nasim for research assistance.
More on China Q3 GDP
BOFIT calculations (based on Kerola (2019)) indicate a slower pace of growth than officially reported. Year-on-Year, the simple average of alternative calculations is less than 4%, compared to the 4.9% officially reported (which is at the top of the range of growth rates from the alternative calculations).
Guest Contribution: “Exchange Rate Elasticities and Product Sophistication”
Today, we’re fortunate to have Willem Thorbecke, Senior Fellow at Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) as a guest contributor. The views expressed represent those of the author himself, and do not necessarily represent those of RIETI, or any other institutions the author is affiliated with.
China GDP Growth in Q3
Q/Q was 1.3% vs. consensus 1%.
Mean and Median Cumulative Wage Growth
Inflation has not kept with wage growth over the last year.
The GDP Outlook: Now and Near Future
The October WSJ forecast survey is out. The mean forecast is for no downturn (no 2-quarter negative growth). It’s also a lot higher than three months ago.
Inflation: Known Unknowns
In my MJS article on inflation, I wrote:
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-October
Industrial and manufacturing production surprise on the upside (0.3% m/m vs. 0.1% consensus, 0.4% vs. 0.1% respectively), with August growth revised up. Here is a picture of key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC as well as monthly GDP (SPGMI) and GDPNow (at 5.4% q/q SAAR as of today).
“The inflation surge is over. Now we’ll see if interest rate increases cause recession.”
From the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel today (title not mine):