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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

FT-IGM December Macroeconomists Survey – Fed Policy, Impending Recession (and More)

Recession likely, modal response 2023Q1 or Q2. Median forecast q4/q4 2023 growth 1% (Survey responses here; FT article here):

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This entry was posted on December 8, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

10yr-3mo Term Spread and Recession, Down Under

Here’s a picture of the 10yr-3mo term spread in Australia:

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This entry was posted on December 7, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Term Spreads and Recessions, Country by Country Evidence – a Very Incomplete Review

Dr. Rosser asks what is the evidence for term spreads predicting recessions, with special reference to Japan. Here is my partial answer:

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This entry was posted on December 7, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

GDP Prospects

Atlanta Fed nowcast at 3.4% q/q SAAR:

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This entry was posted on December 6, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Term Spreads around the World, as of December 6, 2022

Here is a snapshot of four key term spreads spreads through November (an examination prompted by a Deutsche Bank missive title “The Looming Recession” which dropped into my inbox today).

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This entry was posted on December 6, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Real Wages during and Post-Pandemic

While recent accounts have focused on the erosion of real wages with high inflation, what is true is that average real wages in the private sector, and amongs the lowest paid segment, leisure and hospitality workers, has risen since 2020M02.

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This entry was posted on December 5, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Is the Establishment Series Overestimating NFP Employment?

That is the proposition forwarded by Kevin Drum at Jabberwocking. Verbatim:

So: have we really created 2.5 million new jobs since March? I’m not sure I believe that.

The graph he posted summarizes his argument succinctly:

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This entry was posted on December 4, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Short Horizon Inflation Expectations – Survey and Market Based

One year horizon:

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This entry was posted on December 3, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

GS “Recession Watch” Odds at 35%

From M. Abecasis/GS today:

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This entry was posted on December 2, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Employment Release and Business Cycle Indicators

NFP employment increase of 263K surprises on upside (vs. Bloomberg consensus of 200K). This is the resulting picture for some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.

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This entry was posted on December 2, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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