Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Paweł Skrzypczyński, economist at the National Bank of Poland. The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the National Bank of Poland.
Ron Johnson on Climate Change: “Can you really do anything about it?”
That’s the senator on the climate change issue, in tonight’s Wisconsin senatorial candidate debate. For him, it’s “not solvable.”
I’ve never heard him say it, but the logical conclusion must be that he’s awaitin’ for the Rapture, so no need to worry (at least for those who will be moving on).
Weekly Macro Indicators through 10/1
As measured by NY Fed WEI, OECD Weekly Tracker, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI.
The Employment Report and Business Cycle Indicators
Nonfarm payroll employment in September was slightly above consensus (263K vs 250K), showing continued growth. This is the picture of key macro indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus IHS-Markit monthly GDP.
The Chinn-Ito Financial Openness Index Updated to 2020
We first constructed the index 20 years ago (Chinn and Ito, NBER WP No. 8967)! See the website for the data.
Jobs vs. Employment in the CES and CPS Employment Series
A reader asserts that Senator Johnson, in stating “It’s not like we don’t have enough jobs here in Wisconsin.” means that I should be reporting number of jobs, not number of people employed. However, in the previous post, I was exactly showing manufacturing and nonfarm payroll employment jobs (drawn from the Current Establishment Survey), which refer to the number of jobs, to wit:
“It’s not like we don’t have enough jobs here in Wisconsin” – Ron Johnson, February 2022
Article here. How’s Wisconsin doing, jobwise — particularly in terms of the manufacturing employment that Senator Johnson declined to try to bring to Wisconsin?
Business Cycle Indicators at October’s Start
With September IHS-Markit (Macroeconomic Advisers) monthly GDP, we have the following picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.
The Recent Pound Plunge in Context: 50 Years of the Real Rate
The drop in the pound over the last week was dramatic. But even with the recovery in the currency’s value to pre-mini-budget levels, the pound has been on a downward trend for the past six years, in inflation adjusted terms.
Lyman Sit-Rep
From ISW (8:30pm ET):