A new ebook, edited by Luis Garicano, Dominic Rohner, and Beatrice Weder di Mauro.
Business Cycle Indicators Reported as of Mid-September
With August industrial production coming in below consensus (m/m -0.2% vs. 0.1% Bloomberg), we have the following picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.
Guest Contribution: “U.S. Trade Deficits and Exchange Rates”
Today, we’re fortunate to have Willem Thorbecke, Senior Fellow at Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) as a guest contributor. The views expressed represent those of the author himself, and do not necessarily represent those of RIETI, or any other institutions the author is affiliated with.
PPI in August, and Possible Implications for the CPI
M/M PPI at Bloomberg consensus, core slightly above. At the m/m, q/q and y/y horizons.
If You Were Curious
Order of Battle, Izium area:
Market Expectations for Fed Funds Target, pre- & post-August CPI Release
From CME FedWatch app, in the wake of the CPI surprise.
Russian GDP in Q2
Quarter-on-quarter numbers are out (y/y were out earlier). From Iikka Korhonen:
Inflation in August
Readings exceeds expectations, m/m 0.6% vs. 0.3% Bloomberg consensus (0.1% vs -0.1% core).
Weekly Indicators of Economic Activity through September 3rd
Year-on-year, activity still seems to be increasing. Shown below are the Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) WEI, and the Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker, and the Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Index for the US, for data up to a week ago (September 3rd):
Ukraine Military SitRep Sept 8th
From ISW, as of 9:30pm ET 9/8 (in reply to queries):