From WaPo [link added 2pm]:
An FBI affidavit filed prior to the search of former president Donald Trump’s home says agents reviewed 184 classified documents that were kept at the Florida property after he left the White House — including several with Trump’s apparent handwriting on them…
Here’s the redacted affidavit. [link]
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
As measured by the Lewis-Mertens-Stock WEI:
Each year, the establishment series is benchmark-revised. The preliminary estimate for March was released yesterday. Short story – employment growth looks faster and stronger – up 462K relative to original 150856K (up by 0.3%).
Down slightly, in August, for Michigan and Survey of Professional Forecasters.
A remarkable downgrade in expected growth shows up in a large implied negative — and widening — output gap, even as forecasted long yields rise, according to the Survey of Professional Forecasters (released 8/12).
Some people think we’re in a recession now, some think it’s in the past (we’re currently in H2 2022). In fact some economists surveyed by NABE believe we’re in a recession now (as shown in the chart below). Here’re some reminders of our best estimates of the current macro situation we’re in.
CFNAI edition – from Chicago Fed today:
Index Points to a Pickup in Economic Growth in July
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was +0.27 in July, up from –0.25 in June.
An e-book with contributions by Torbjörn Becker, Barry Eichengreen, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Sergei Guriev, Simon Johnson, Tymofiy Mylovanov, Maurice Obstfeld, Kenneth Rogoff, and Beatrice Weder di Mauro.