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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Business Cycle Indicators at the September’s End

With August nominal consumption coming in above consensus (m/m +0.4% vs. +0.2% Bloomberg), and consumption and personal income continuing to rise, we have the following picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.

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This entry was posted on September 30, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Ukrainian Territorial Gains in September

From JohnH on 9/2/2022, in response to anonymous’s query: “how’s the crossing of the dneipr and reconquesta of kherson going?”

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This entry was posted on September 29, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Natixis: Impact on Chinese GDP Growth via Consumption Reduction

Garcia-Herrero and Xu, “China’s Covid Restrictions May Slash More than Two Percentage Points of Growth in 2022,” (Natixis, Sep 27, 2022):

[Assuming] Covid-related mobility restrictions in 03 to remain similar for 04, the overall reduction in China’s GDP growth in 2022 could be 2.3 percentage points.

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This entry was posted on September 29, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Guest Contribution: “Has the Fed Pivoted Too Far?”

Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, Professor and Instructional Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Houston.


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This entry was posted on September 29, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Weekly Economic Activity through 9/24

As measured by NY Fed WEI, OECD Weekly Tracker, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI.

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This entry was posted on September 29, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

GDP Level Up, GDO Down and Trending Sideways

The annual benchmark revision (release) made substantial changes to the level of reported GDP — but not to the growth rate in 2022H1– while GDO is revised slightly down as GDI is revised downward. Final sales to private domestic purchasers, a measure of domestic demand, revised up and rises.

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This entry was posted on September 29, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

UK Economic Policy Uncertainty Spikes

As I wrote yesterday, “tomorrow is another day”.

Figure 1: UK Economic Policy Uncertainty (blue), and centered 7 day moving average (red). ECRI defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: policyuncertainty.com, ECRI and author’s calculations.

This entry was posted on September 29, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

UK Measured Economic Policy Uncertainty in Context

In some ways, policy uncertainty — at least as measured using text — is not as bad as I would’ve thought. Here’s the Baker-Bloom-Davis index:

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This entry was posted on September 28, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Yield Curve Inversions in the UK

Recession coming? Or is it already here? Here’s a picture of the UK yield curve as of today, a month ago and 6 months ago:

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This entry was posted on September 28, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Reserve Currency Status Is No Vaccination against Recklessness – UK Edition

…although it helps.

I never thought an advanced economy government could pursue stupider policies than that implemented under the Trump administration. Consider me corrected on this point – case in point, the United Kingdom in 2022.

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This entry was posted on September 28, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

  • EJ Antoni ‘s “Sustainable” Employment Measure Is in the Red
  • One of These Is Not Like the Others – Messages from the FOMC SEP
  • Business Cycle Indicators at Mid-September
  • The Danger of Fed Credibility under Assault
  • WisPolitics/Wisconsin Technology Council: “How tariffs are affecting Wisconsin’s economy”

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