One Year Ahead Inflation Forecasts

 

Figure 1: CPI inflation year-on-year (black), median expected from Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue +), median expected (preliminary) from Michigan Survey of Consumers (red), median from NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (light green), forecast from Cleveland Fed (pink), mean from Coibion-Gorodnichenko firm expectations survey [light blue squares]. Source: BLS, University of Michigan via FRED and Investing.comReutersPhiladelphia Fed Survey of Professional ForecastersNY FedCleveland Fed and Coibion and Gorodnichenko

In terms of accuracy and bias, a new study by Bennett and Owyang (forthcoming) is very relevant.

Statements and Documentation on Russian Actions in Ukraine

From Human Rights Watch (Apr 3): “Ukraine: Apparent War Crimes in Russia-Controlled Areas: Summary Executions, Other Grave Abuses by Russian Forces”.

From Amnesty International (Apr 7): “Ukraine: Russian forces extrajudicially executing civilians in apparent war crimes – new testimony”

From UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) (March 28): “Mounting civilian deaths, mass destruction and catastrophic humanitarian situation as Russian Federation attacks Ukraine”

Bellingcat has been documenting the application of cluster bombs and artillery strikes against civilian populations.