First, what are current one month and 1 month forward 2 months doing?
Guest Contribution: “Why has the Nobel Prize sometimes been given to economists with opposing viewpoints?.”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. This was his response to a question posed in a symposium of views in The International Economy:
One Year Ahead Inflation Forecasts
Figure 1: CPI inflation year-on-year (black), median expected from Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue +), median expected (preliminary) from Michigan Survey of Consumers (red), median from NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (light green), forecast from Cleveland Fed (pink), mean from Coibion-Gorodnichenko firm expectations survey [light blue squares]. Source: BLS, University of Michigan via FRED and Investing.com, Reuters, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, NY Fed, Cleveland Fed and Coibion and Gorodnichenko.
In terms of accuracy and bias, a new study by Bennett and Owyang (forthcoming) is very relevant.
Real Wages
Reader JohnH confidently asserts:
Will the True PPI Stand Up?
Links: Oil Shocks, China Lockdowns, Spring Meetings, Economic Report of the President, and Ukraine Reconstruction
Some links relevant to current events, in no particular order:
PPI Inflation in March, with Implications for April CPI
Month-on-month PPI inflation surprised on the upside, 1.4% vs. Bloomberg consensus 1.1%, while core PPI was up 1% vs. 0.5% consensus.
Financial Market Responses to the March CPI Release
10yr-2yr spread continues to rise, 5 year inflation breakeven (unadjusted) shrinks, as does implied 2 month interest rate 1 month forward.
Inflation and Energy Prices
It’s belaboring the obvious that gasoline (and energy prices) had a big impact on headline inflation [BLS release]. M/m inflation was at Bloomberg consensus of 1.2%, while core was below, at 0.3% vs. consensus 0.5%. However, it’s useful to see how over time exactly how much headline and core diverged.
Statements and Documentation on Russian Actions in Ukraine
From Human Rights Watch (Apr 3): “Ukraine: Apparent War Crimes in Russia-Controlled Areas: Summary Executions, Other Grave Abuses by Russian Forces”.
From Amnesty International (Apr 7): “Ukraine: Russian forces extrajudicially executing civilians in apparent war crimes – new testimony”
From UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) (March 28): “Mounting civilian deaths, mass destruction and catastrophic humanitarian situation as Russian Federation attacks Ukraine”
Bellingcat has been documenting the application of cluster bombs and artillery strikes against civilian populations.