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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Month-on-Month Headline, Core inflation Down

Below consensus, headline m/m at 0.1% vs. 0.3% Bloomberg consensus, and core 0.2% vs. 0.3% consensus. Headline and core m/m annualized inflation in Figures 1 and 2, along with chained, sticky price, trimmed, and PCE.

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This entry was posted on December 13, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

“Do foreign yield curves predict US recessions and GDP growth?”

Our short answer: yes.

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This entry was posted on December 13, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Some Empirical Definitions of Recession, around the World: An Incomplete List

For those who don’t want to use a simple two-consecutive-quarter rule (which would declare the 2001 recession a non-recession).

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This entry was posted on December 12, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

So You Think We Were In a Recession in 2022H1? – Last Observations for 2022

At least somebody still believes that as of a couple weeks ago.

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This entry was posted on December 10, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

GDP Nowcasts as of 12/10: Growth in Q4

We have Q4 nowcasts and tracking estimates as of 12/9, and implied Q4 from Lewis-Mertens-Stock WEI.

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This entry was posted on December 10, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Deceleration (through 12/3)!

Weekly indicators from Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) Weekly Economic Indicators, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI, through 12/3; and Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker  through 11/26.

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This entry was posted on December 8, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

FT-IGM December Macroeconomists Survey – Fed Policy, Impending Recession (and More)

Recession likely, modal response 2023Q1 or Q2. Median forecast q4/q4 2023 growth 1% (Survey responses here; FT article here):

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This entry was posted on December 8, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

10yr-3mo Term Spread and Recession, Down Under

Here’s a picture of the 10yr-3mo term spread in Australia:

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This entry was posted on December 7, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Term Spreads and Recessions, Country by Country Evidence – a Very Incomplete Review

Dr. Rosser asks what is the evidence for term spreads predicting recessions, with special reference to Japan. Here is my partial answer:

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This entry was posted on December 7, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

GDP Prospects

Atlanta Fed nowcast at 3.4% q/q SAAR:

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This entry was posted on December 6, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

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  • Everyday Prices Up 2.2% since Jan. 2025

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 11.7 (describes  2025:Q1)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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