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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Does a Decline in the 12 Month Moving Average of VMT Presage a Recession?

Mr. Steven Kopits writes:

But by and large, VMT on a 12 mms basis turns a bit before or right at the start of a recession.

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This entry was posted on June 29, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

GDP and GDO, 3rd vs 2nd release

From BEA today:

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This entry was posted on June 29, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Is a Decline in Vehicle Miles Traveled a 1 Month Leading Indicator for Recession?

Mr. Steven Kopits writes:

Another is vehicle miles traveled, which is either very short term leading (ie, failing one month or so prior to the official onset of recession), coincident, or lagging by up to 4-5 months if one is using, say, 12 month moving sums.

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This entry was posted on June 28, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

So You Think We Might Be in a Recession Today (Part III)

Some people point to initial claims for unemployment insurance.

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This entry was posted on June 28, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Reminders: Don’t Accuse People of Manipulating the Data before Figuring Out What Has Been Done, and Other Helpful Hints for Not Losing All Credibility

Some additional notes for my students:

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This entry was posted on June 28, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Reminders: Logs, Chain-Weights, Confidence Intervals, Data Footnotes, Data Revisions, and Stereotypes

Notes for my students:

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This entry was posted on June 27, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Nowcasts and Forecasts

of GDP, along with current Gross Domestic Output (average of GDP and GDI):

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This entry was posted on June 27, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations as of End-June

Year-on-year CPI headline inflation is expected to be lower as of a year from now, ranging from 4.2% to 6.8%.

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This entry was posted on June 26, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Why We Don’t Call Recessions on the Basis of Petroleum Use

Reader Steven Kopits writes:

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This entry was posted on June 25, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

So You Think We Might Be In a Recession Today (Part II)?

Look around at enough indicators (say vehicle miles traveled) and you might think so.  A follow up to this post. Let’s look at what conventional and high frequency indicators say.

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This entry was posted on June 25, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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