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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Reminders: Logs, Chain-Weights, Confidence Intervals, Data Footnotes, Data Revisions, and Stereotypes

Notes for my students:

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This entry was posted on June 27, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Nowcasts and Forecasts

of GDP, along with current Gross Domestic Output (average of GDP and GDI):

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This entry was posted on June 27, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations as of End-June

Year-on-year CPI headline inflation is expected to be lower as of a year from now, ranging from 4.2% to 6.8%.

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This entry was posted on June 26, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Why We Don’t Call Recessions on the Basis of Petroleum Use

Reader Steven Kopits writes:

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This entry was posted on June 25, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

So You Think We Might Be In a Recession Today (Part II)?

Look around at enough indicators (say vehicle miles traveled) and you might think so.  A follow up to this post. Let’s look at what conventional and high frequency indicators say.

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This entry was posted on June 25, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

In Memory of Robert Haveman

Robert Haveman, a prime force behind the establishment of the La Follette School of Public Affairs, passed last week. Today, Tim Smeeding, a longtime friend, colleague,  co-author and student of Bob Haveman, shares some thoughts on this occasion.


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This entry was posted on June 24, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Some Random Graphs and Links

For reference:

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This entry was posted on June 23, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Graphically Taking the Quantity Equation Literally

A tautology:

MV ≡ PQ

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This entry was posted on June 23, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Advanced Country Headline Inflation Rates – May 2022

High inflation not just in the US:

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This entry was posted on June 23, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

“Neither model could identify this effect as different from 0.”

Key phrase buried in the Appendix to the Badger Institute‘s study entitled: “Unemployment (Over)compensation: How the federal supplemental unemployment benefits impacted unemployment during the pandemic” (April 2022).

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This entry was posted on June 22, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

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  • Central Bank Gold Holdings
  • Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers Nowcasts Decelerate

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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