Transitory vs. Persistent: You decide.
Inflation at Month-on-Month: Headline, Core, Sticky, Trimmed, Mean, Instantaneous
As of June:
Inflation and Core Inflation at Various Horizons
Headline and core are both at 0.2% m/m, vs. Bloomberg consensus at 0.3%. Here’s picture of m/m, y/y, and instantaneous (Eeckhout 2023, T=12,a=4).
More On NFP Employment Overestimation
In a post from Sunday, I noted that NFP employment might be overestimated, but trends were generally aligned. Noting how the Business Employment Dynamics (BED) and Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data have provided different signals, Steven Englander at Standard Charter has calculated how much overstatement there might be. Continue reading
China, Mid-2023: Teetering on Deflation
The June numbers for Chinese inflation surprised on the downside: 0.0% headline vs. +0.2% y/y Bloomberg consensus, -5.4% PPI vs. -5.0% consensus. Continue reading
FERC/NERC Report On Texas 2021
Clearly, electricity generators and natural gas providers were the problem in reduced supply during the winter crisis of 2021, according to the FERC/NERC report.
Alternative Readings on Private and Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment
NFP surprised on downside slightly; however, alternative measures indicate continued growth through at least May. That characterization also applies to private NFP.
Business Cycle Indicators as Employment Growth Decelerates
Nonfarm payroll employment surprises on the downside, while preceding months are revised down. Here’s the picture of key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC, along with monthly GDP (SPGMI).
The Manufacturing Construction Boom and Nonresidential Investment
Deputy Asst Secretary Tara Sinclair and Asst Sec Van Nostrand and Special Asst Gupta discuss the ongoing boom in manufacturing construction. Here’s one graph:
Remembering History: Texas Power Generation Outages in the 2021 Crisis
Here is plotted some time series, from Busby et al. “Cascading risks: Understanding the 2021 winter blackout in Texas,” Energy Research & Social Science Volume 77, July 2021, 102106.