Here’s a picture from late yesterday:
Source: as of 28 Nov, militaryland.net, accessed 29 Nov 2022.
See latest report from ISW for context.
“Sky-high [natural] gas prices…”
What is “News”? What is an “Event study”? China Edition
Remarks by a reader indicate it’s worthwhile to recap this topic. Consider:
Guest Contribution: “The Strong Dollar, Global Inflation, and Global Recession”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Steven Kamin (AEI), formerly Director of the Division of International Finance at the Federal Reserve Board. The views presented represent those of the authors, and not necessarily those of the institutions the authors are affiliated with.
Maximum AUROC Term Spreads as of 11/25
In 2019, Fed economist David Miller undertook a comprehensive assessment of term spread predictive power for recessions (There is No Single Best Predictor of Recessions). For the 1984-2018 period, he found the following:
“China markets tank as protests erupt over Covid lockdowns”
From CNN:
China’s major stock indices and its currency have opened sharply lower Monday, as widespread protests against the country’s stringent Covid-19 restrictions over the weekend roiled investor sentiment.
Yin-Wong Cheung: “The RMB in the Global Economy”
From a new book from Cambridge:
Did the Yield Curve Predict a 2022H1 Recession?
No.
Term Spread Recession Forecasts
Yesterday’s Bloomberg article “Fed Staff Sees a 50-50 Chance of Recession” spurred me to examine the implications of the latest readings on term spreads. Figure 1 depicts the recession probabilities estimated using a simple probit model based on the 10yr-3mo and 10yr-2yr spreads, through November 23rd.
How to End an Endless Debate
A long running debate between reader JohnH and just about anybody else on this website involves UK 2015 (1) inflation, and (2) real wages, with JohnH quoting from various documents. I thought it useful to GET THE DATA MYSELF to resolve the question. Below are three graphs, of consumer price level, year-on-year inflation, and the CPI deflated wage.