(Rejoinder to all the conspiracy nuts who will say this photo was taken elsewhere)
US Private Nonfarm Payroll Employment – What Does the Revamped ADP Series Tell Us?
After a hiatus, ADP released today a new series (compiled in conjunction with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab) that tries to independently measure private nonfarm payroll employment, rather than predict the BLS series. What does it look like over time, and compared to the old series (and the BLS series)?
When Lacking Policy Proposals, Attack Diversity
Is the Dollar Strong? Or Likely to Get Stronger?
Compared to a sample average, the inflation adjusted dollar is strong. It’s not clear what that means — namely because the (real) dollar is not statistically distinguishable from a unit root process. The dollar is also likely to get stronger, based on historical patterns.
Guest Contribution: “Global Recession Is Not Inevitable”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. This post is part of a symposium at Project Syndicate.
Weekly Economic Indicators, thru August 20
Here are the Lewis-Mertens-Stock Weekly Economic Index (NY Fed) and the OECD Weekly Tracker, covering data through August 20.
Bank Lending, thru Aug. 17
Or, a post for Steven Kopits.
GDP, GDO, GDP+, Hours and Income
Following up on Friday’s post (“When is a recession not a recession?”) by Jan P.A.M. Jacobs, Samad Sarferaz, Jan-Egbert Sturm and Simon van Norden , here’s a picture in levels of some of the alternative GDP measures, along with two key variables followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (aggregate hours, personal income excluding transfers), at the quarterly frequency.
When is a Recession not a Recession?
Today we are pleased to host a guest contribution written by Jan P.A.M. Jacobs of the University of Groningen, Samad Sarferaz and Jan-Egbert Sturm of the Swiss Economic Institute, and Simon van Norden of HEC Montreal.
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