Skip to content

Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Inflation-Disinflation-Deflation Illustrated

Yesterday, a discussion on Marketplace (w/Justin Ho) about how these terms fit together. In order to explain, consider a broad price index (e.g., CPI). Then one can illustrate these concepts graphically:

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on May 11, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Year-on-year vs. Month-on-month inflation for Headline, Core

Dramatic plunge in headline CPI m/m inflation, but both headline and core surprise on upside.

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on May 11, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Inflation Adjusted Wages since the Pandemic

Inflation exceeds average hourly earnings in the aggregate (private sector) and for Leisure and Hospitality Services (production and nonsupervisory). But they are still ahead of 2020M02 levels.

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on May 8, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Guesstimating the US-Euro Area Core Inflation Differential in April

April HICP numbers are out for the Euro Area. The US reports April CPI on Wednesday. Using the Cleveland Fed’s nowcast for April core (0.52% m/m vs. Bloomberg consensus 0.4%), we have the following picture.

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on May 8, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

US-Euro Area GDP Performance Pre/During Pandemic

We now have Q1 GDP for the US and Euro Area. While US inflation as measured by CPI/HICP is higher than Euro Area (US core accelerating relative to EA by 0.7 ppts since the pandemic), US GDP growth has also been higher.

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on May 7, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Five Year Inflation Breakeven, Estimated Expected Inflation, and Oil

Five year inflation breakevens have risen tightly with oil prices, while accounting for inflation and liquidity premia implies a more gradual albeit more steady increase in implied expected inflation.

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on May 6, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Business Cycle Indicators and Employment

With the release of April employment (428K > 391K Bloomberg consensus), we have the following graph of key indicators noted by NBER BCDC.

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on May 6, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

“Prosperity: Crises, Debt & the Future of American Economic Policy”

That’s the name of the economic session at the La Follette Forum on American Power, Prosperity and Democracy. A video of this panel is available through Youtube. Here are some recounting and thoughts on the panel discussion.

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on May 6, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Guest Contribution: “The Surprising Drop in French Economic Activity “

Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Laurent Ferrara (Professor of International Economics, SKEMA Business School, Paris, and Chair of the French Business Cycle Dating Committee).

 


Continue reading →

This entry was posted on May 5, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Financial Market Signals, Post-FOMC

Higher rates soon, long term inflation expectations anchored, and on term spread signals growth (as do real rates).

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on May 4, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Post navigation

← Older posts
Newer posts →

Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

Folow us on Twitter

  • James Hamilton
  • Menzie Chinn

Recent Posts

  • Business Cycle Indicators – June Employment Release and May Monthly GDP
  • Private NFP Downside Surprise
  • ADP Below Consensus – What Does It Mean?
  • The Return (Again) of Supply Side Economics – CEA Edition
  • Your Daily Reminder: Prices of Import Competing Goods Rise with Tariffed Imported Goods Prices

Categories

Archives

Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

Proudly powered by WordPress