Today we are fortunate to be able to present a guest contribution written by Rashad Ahmed (Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, US Treasury). The views presented are solely those of the author, and do not necessarily represent the views of the US Treasury, or any other organizations the author is affiliated with.
“Surging Dollar Stirs Markets Buzz of a 1980s-Style Plaza Accord”
That’s the title of a Bloomberg article yesterday. Every few years, there’s talk about concerted action to weaken the dollar, as in 2015. There’s good reason to wish for a weaker dollar at various times — a strong dollar and high interest rates strain emerging market external balances. But would such action matter? Here’s a look at the dollar and some covariates.
Update on sanctions, oil prices, and recession
I gave an updated talk on this topic for the Better Policy Project yesterday. Slides available at
this link, video link below.
China GDP Forecast Revision
Even under optimistic assumptions, growth is going to miss the government’s target.
Five Years of S&P 500 Daily Changes
(log first differences):
Treasury Yield Curves, 2019-18 May 2022
Here is a snapshot of yield curves at the beginning of March of four years, and as of today.
How Much Did US Inflation Accelerate Relative to the Euro Area Rate?
Since the Covid pandemic struck in the US in 2020M02, 1.1 percentage points; since 2021M03, 1.6 percentage points, using HICPs (0.4 ppts and 0.7 ppts, respectively using CPI for US, HICP for Euro Area).
Stock Market Movements and Real Rates
Over the last 9 months, the S&P500 has seemingly peaked and is now declining. Risk, discounting or something else?
Another Economic Sitrep for China
From “GS Economic Indicators: China CAI Falls to -11% in April”:
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-May
With the release of industrial production (1.1% m/m vs. 0.5% Bloomberg consensus; mfg 0.8% vs. 0.4% consensus), we have the April reading for another key indicator followed by the NBER BCDC.