With yesterday’s employment situation release (discussed in this post), we have data employment by sectors, as well as corresponding average hourly earnings. We don’t have the CPI for that month, but using nowcasts, we can guess what is likely to be happening to real wages.
December Employment
Yesterday’s nonfarm payroll employment growth (here) surprised (significantly) on the downside.
Financial Market Indicators for Expected Inflation, Output
As of yesterday:
ADP Private Employment Upside Surprise
ADP released its December employment estimate of 807K vs Bloomberg consensus of 400K.
A Global Supply Chain Pressure Index
Farm Income – 2021
Net income up, government support down.
Business Cycle Indicators, at Year’s Start 2022
Monthly GDP for November is in; next big indicator is December nonfarm payroll on Friday. Here are some key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC.
Latest Statistics on Covid-19 Hospitalizations, Fatality Rates, and Speculation
From NYT, today.
Year in Review, 2021: Cleaning Up What Trump Wrought
Last year’s recap was subtitled “Hanging on for dear life (and rational policymaking)”. This year, at least we’ve ended the self-inflicted economic uncertainty (and officially sanctioned economic mendacity) of the previous four years.
China, Omicron, and US Inflation
When assessing the course of US inflation, it’s helpful to have a model; the one I use is the AD-AS model described in this post. The cost of imported inputs can be interpreted as a cost-push shock (rather than an overheated economy caused by high aggregate demand relative to low potential GDP). In this context, China — as a major supplier of inputs and commodities to the US — looms large. And hence, developments there loom large. The preliminary findings that the Chinese vaccines are not particularly effective against the omicron variant, combined with the Chinese authorities’ zero tolerance for covid infections, means that the disruptions to imports from China are likely to continue for some time.