Order of Battle, Izium area:
Market Expectations for Fed Funds Target, pre- & post-August CPI Release
From CME FedWatch app, in the wake of the CPI surprise.
Russian GDP in Q2
Quarter-on-quarter numbers are out (y/y were out earlier). From Iikka Korhonen:
Inflation in August
Readings exceeds expectations, m/m 0.6% vs. 0.3% Bloomberg consensus (0.1% vs -0.1% core).
Weekly Indicators of Economic Activity through September 3rd
Year-on-year, activity still seems to be increasing. Shown below are the Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) WEI, and the Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker, and the Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Index for the US, for data up to a week ago (September 3rd):
Ukraine Military SitRep Sept 8th
From ISW, as of 9:30pm ET 9/8 (in reply to queries):
Nearly 45 Years of the Chinese Yuan Exchange Rate
Official vs. effective, real vs. nominal, bilateral vs. multilateral.
The EIA and Futures Outlook for Oil Prices
From the EIA’s Short Term Economic Outlook:
Inflation Breakevens: Common and Uncommon Shocks
Assuming unadjusted nominal-real yields are a good indicator of inflation expectations (see yesterday’s post for why maybe not), it’s interesting to see how market based inflation expectations have moved over the recent past (pre-today’s ECB decision):
Market Based Expectations of Five Year Ahead Inflation
It might be misleading to rely to heavily on simple inflation break even calculations, which show inflation over the next five years lower today than they were on the even of the expanded Russian invasion of Ukraine.