It’s lagging that of the BEA Great Lakes Region, and of neighbor Minnesota.
BLS Private Nonfarm Payroll Employment – ADP, Consensus, Revisions
BLS Private nonfarm payrolls up 444K vs. ADP down 301K vs. +150K consensus (Bloomberg), with big revisions to previous months. A lesson in not over-reading the ADP series (see employment situation release).
Nearly Three-Quarters of a Century of Productivity and Costs
Numbers released today for 2021Q4.
The Recovery in Wisconsin
Output is still below peak levels.
ADP Downside Surprise
Private nonfarm payrolls down 301K vs. +207K consensus (Bloomberg). Still, don’t over-read.
Business Cycle Indicators at the Start of February
IHS-Markit’s monthly GDP is out, with a 0.1% m/m increase in December. Here are some key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC.
The Asset Side of the Fed’s Balance Sheet, and Credit Easing to Date
You can always see a nice graphic showing the broad breakdown of Fed asset holdings at the Cleveland Fed’s website:
Guest Contribution: “Inflation, Fed policy and emerging markets”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Steven Kamin (AEI), formerly Director of the Division of International Finance at the Federal Reserve Board. The views presented represent those of the authors, and not necessarily those of the institutions the authors are affiliated with.
Bitcoin and Different Types of Uncertainty/Risk
What matters (as we ponder Russian actions in Ukraine (e.g., invasion). Will elevated geopolitical risk matter, and if so, how much?