Ahmed and Chinn (2023), coauthored with Rashad Ahmed, accepted at JMCB. The US and Foreign 10yr-3mo inversion remain deep (although not as deep as in March when last I posted).
FX Turnover through 2022
Doing some research on international currencies, I reviewed FX turnover data from the BIS, through April 2022. Dollar dominated, two months after the expanded Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The Year in Review, 2023: Deep State @ BLS, Russia’s Expanded Invasion No Big Deal (to the World Economy), and Wisconsin’s Senator Theoden
Slightly behind schedule, my year reviewed. Last year’s recap was entitled “Year in Review, 2022: Vast Data Conspiracy by BEA, “Drill, baby, drill!”, and the Ills of Diversity” This year, with rational policymaking returning, it’s time to keep on trying to erase stupidity.
Wisconsin Economic Indicators Diverge
The labor market looks stronger than GDP.
Last GDPNow of the Year
And other forecasts and nowcasts:
Why I Don’t Cheer the Soft Landing (Yet)
In early 2001 (April or May) I was on staff at CEA, and recall a conversation where I was assured there’d be no recession, given the latest data available. So, with all the data I’ve recapped, remember, the data will be revised (and GDP in particular will be revised, over and over again).
PCE Inflation: Instantaneous below Target
Year-on-Year PCE inflation (3.2% in November) is a standard; here’s instantaneous headline and core for comparison (and trimmed mean y/y through October):
Income, Consumption, Manufacturing and Trade Industry Sales and the Measured Business Cycle
Income and consumption m/m growth at consensus. Here’s the picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP and GDPNow.
The Wisconsin Macro Outlook (Updated for Employment Release)
Yesterday, the Wisconsin macro outlook was reviewed in the context of the November Economic Forecast released by the DoR. Today, we can update the picture, using the newly released employment numbers (piece on WPR today).
NBER BCDC Indicators, Some Alternative Indicators, and Weekly Measures Through Mid-December
As of mid-December, it’s hard to see the recession (even with this morning’s downward revision of GDP growth to 4.9%) so there’s a lot of triumphalism about how the oft-predicted recession of 2023. We only have monthly data through November at best, so perhaps it’s still a little premature to declare victory for 2023 — but only a little. For 2024, these concurrent indicators are of little help.