From the conclusion to the Report:
Four Pictures of the Labor Market in August
Employment (NFP, private NFP) exceeds consensus slightly The recession is not here as far as I can tell. Nor does it seem to have been here in H1.
The “… Recession of H1 2022”? (Part III)
How Do We Know this Photo Was Actually Taken at Mar-a-Lago?
(Rejoinder to all the conspiracy nuts who will say this photo was taken elsewhere)
US Private Nonfarm Payroll Employment – What Does the Revamped ADP Series Tell Us?
After a hiatus, ADP released today a new series (compiled in conjunction with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab) that tries to independently measure private nonfarm payroll employment, rather than predict the BLS series. What does it look like over time, and compared to the old series (and the BLS series)?
When Lacking Policy Proposals, Attack Diversity
Is the Dollar Strong? Or Likely to Get Stronger?
Compared to a sample average, the inflation adjusted dollar is strong. It’s not clear what that means — namely because the (real) dollar is not statistically distinguishable from a unit root process. The dollar is also likely to get stronger, based on historical patterns.
Guest Contribution: “Global Recession Is Not Inevitable”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. This post is part of a symposium at Project Syndicate.
Weekly Economic Indicators, thru August 20
Here are the Lewis-Mertens-Stock Weekly Economic Index (NY Fed) and the OECD Weekly Tracker, covering data through August 20.
Bank Lending, thru Aug. 17
Or, a post for Steven Kopits.