Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Nelson Mark, Alfred C. DeCrane Jr. Professor of Economics (U. Notre Dame).
Why did U.S. real GDP fall?
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP fell at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter. What does this portend?
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Guest Contribution: “Energy Policies Can Be Both Geopolitical and Green”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
“The New Fama Puzzle”
or “Do you really know what Uncovered Interest Parity is, and whether it holds?” Published as of today in IMF Economic Review, with coauthored with Laurent Ferrara (SKEMA Business School), Matthieu Bussière (Banque de France), and Jonas Heipertz (Columbia Business School):
Interpreting Growth Rate Changes and Deterministic vs. Stochastic Trends – An Application to Inflation Differentials
Two ways of calculating how prices have moved pre-pandemic and during pandemic, incorporating the ideas of stochastic vs. deterministic trends (e.g., this post, Stock and Watson, JEP, 1988).
Four Questions and Four Answers: US and Euro Area Core Inflation
Or why Jason Furman and I get different answers.
- Is US core inflation faster than Euro Area, during the pandemic? Yes.
- Was US core inflation faster than Euro Area, before the pandemic? Yes.
- Is US core m/m inflation faster than Euro Area during the pandemic period, with statistical significance? Yes.
- Did US core m/m inflation accelerate relative to Euro Area during the pandemic period, with statistical significance? No.
What To Make of the Chinese Sovereign Yield Curve?
The WorldofGovernmentBonds website provides 2s10s, 2s5s and 1s2s spreads for a whole bunch of countries (missing unfortunately my favorite the 3m10s). Here’s the yield curve for China as of today:
“American Power, Prosperity and Democracy” – LaFollette Forum 2022
The La Follette School will host its third La Follette Forum, funded by the Kohl Initiative and the Center for European Studies, on Wednesday, May 4, 2022. With guest speakers Adam Posen (Peterson IIE), Catherine Rampell (WaPo), Paul Blustein (formerly WSJ, WaPo), Oriana Skylar Mastro (Stanford), Jamelle Bouie (NYT), Daniel Ziblatt (Harvard), and discussion by UW faculty.
Climate Change and Mitigation Policies
Teaching Public Affairs 200 “Contemporary public policy issues” this semester, we had the good fortune to have a guest lecture by Greg Nemet (my colleague at La Follette, and a lead author on IWG3 Report of the IPCC Assessment Round 6) on Wednesday. He covered an enormous amount of material in one short lecture, here:
How Much Faster Has American Inflation Been Compared to Euro Area Inflation?
Since the pandemic struck, 0.4 percentage points (headline), 0.7 percentage points (core) [with additional results/graphs, 4/24]