Today we are pleased to host a guest contribution written by Jan P.A.M. Jacobs of the University of Groningen, Samad Sarferaz and Jan-Egbert Sturm of the Swiss Economic Institute, and Simon van Norden of HEC Montreal.
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The “recession…of H1 2022”? (Part II)
“AFFIDAVIT IN SUPPORT OF AN APPLICATION UNDER RULE 41 FOR A WARRANT TO SEARCH AND SEIZE “
From WaPo [link added 2pm]:
An FBI affidavit filed prior to the search of former president Donald Trump’s home says agents reviewed 184 classified documents that were kept at the Florida property after he left the White House — including several with Trump’s apparent handwriting on them…
Here’s the redacted affidavit. [link]
Guest Contribution: “Why Commodity Prices May Have Peaked”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Weekly Economic Activity Measures thru 8/20
As measured by the Lewis-Mertens-Stock WEI:
Nonfarm Payroll Employment and Implications of the Preliminary Benchmark Revision
Each year, the establishment series is benchmark-revised. The preliminary estimate for March was released yesterday. Short story – employment growth looks faster and stronger – up 462K relative to original 150856K (up by 0.3%).
One Year Ahead CPI Inflation Expectations [figure updated 8/26]
Down slightly, in August, for Michigan and Survey of Professional Forecasters.
GDP and Ten Year Yield Forecasts: Messages from the Survey of Professional Forecasters
A remarkable downgrade in expected growth shows up in a large implied negative — and widening — output gap, even as forecasted long yields rise, according to the Survey of Professional Forecasters (released 8/12).
The “…recession…of H1 2022”
Some people think we’re in a recession now, some think it’s in the past (we’re currently in H2 2022). In fact some economists surveyed by NABE believe we’re in a recession now (as shown in the chart below). Here’re some reminders of our best estimates of the current macro situation we’re in.