From the Article IV consultation:
Nonresidential Fixed Investment and Prospects for GDP Outlook and Revisions
One of the interesting aspects of the current recovery is the relative small rebound in nonresidential fixed investment.
Gasoline Prices Continue to Fall
Why is no mystery:
Why I Suspect Q1 GDP Will Eventually Be Revised Up
First, look at nonfarm payroll employment and industrial production, as compared to GDP (and GDO):
Nowcasts, July 8th
GS vs Atlanta and IHS-Markit:
So You Think We’re in a Recession as of Mid-June (Part II)?
From Jim Reid at Deutsche Bank today, the observation “…through history a recession usually has a negative print in the first month of it being declared, which then carries on for the vast majority of the subsequent year. This clearly hasn’t happened yet.”
So You Think We Might Be In a Recession as of Mid-June?
With today’s employment situation release, we have the real-time Sahm rule indicator through June:
The Relative Price of Gasoline, thru 7/4/2022
Using core CPI, Cleveland Fed nowcasts for June, July, as of 7/7.
Inflation Expectations at the 5 Year Horizon
Treasury-TIPS 5 year breakeven down to 2.53%, but expected 5 year inflation after adjusting for premia at 2.31% as of 6/30.