With the release of industrial production figures today, the deceleration in economic activity continues, according to some key indicators noted by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC).
Wall Street vs. Academics on Q3 and Q4
Given apparent gridlock in Washington – that is the gap between the administration and Senate Republicans on phase 4 recovery package – Wall Street economists and academics see the recovery somewhat differently. From the Initiative on Global Markets/FiveThirtyEight Covid panel round 10 survey (released October 12).
Wisconsin Employment in September
Statistics released by Wisconsin DWD show nonfarm payroll employment growing in line with US, but — like at the national level — at a decelerating pace.
Wisconsin Covid-19 Trends
This graph is for those who believe reports of negative outcomes Wisconsin are “fake news”.
Figure 1: Wisconsin current Covid-19 hospitalizations (blue, left log scale), fatalities as of date reported (red, right scale). Source: Covid Tracking Project, accessed 10/14/2020.
From Wisconsin State Journal (10/13/2020):
Citing inaction by the state Legislature, a St. Croix County judge on Monday rejected a request by a conservative legal group for a temporary injunction against Gov. Tony Evers’ statewide mask mandate.
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The GOP-led Legislature has met once since the pandemic began, in April, to take up legislation in response to COVID-19. Lawmakers and Evers ultimately signed what officials on both sides of the aisle described as “imperfect” legislation.
The package aimed to complement federal aid allocated to the state, included additional Medicaid funding, allowed for increased unemployment benefits from the federal government and waived a one-week waiting period for benefits until February. The bill also allowed the state budget committee to spend up to $75 million during the public health emergency on coronavirus-related needs, though the committee has not exercised that authority.
Vos and Fitzgerald did not respond to requests for comment on Monday.
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Johnson, who tested positive for COVID-19 earlier this month, said he is opposed to the governor’s mask mandate.
October IMF World Economic Outlook
Slightly higher 2020 growth for advanced economies forecasted – but big challenges moving forward
For the Record: Covid-19 Hospitalizations, Fatalities
Covid-19 related current hospitalizations are up; administratively defined fatalities are up slightly. However the pattern displayed in figure 1 is unsettling (a rejoinder to all those folks who think hospitalization is falling, and think cases rising is merely a reflection of more testing; e.g., here).
Nowcasts Compared
NY Fed, Atlanta Fed, St. Louis Fed, and IHS Markit released nowcasts today.
Covid-19: Excess Fatalities vs. Administrative Counts
In contrast to earlier weeks, the most recent “excess fatality” count is solidly in the positive region, despite the severe under-reporting bias in the most recent observations. To see this, consider the most recent estimates for each of the previous vintages of “excess fatalities” calculated as actual-expected.
This Time Was Not Different
Revising notes on recession prediction for my course, I find the 10yr-3mo spread has preceded 7 of the last 8 recessions (8 if the 14 bps near inversion of mid-1989). And back in June 2019, recession seemed not unlikely.
Wisconsin Alumni Assn/La Follette School/Elections Research Center panel: “Foreign Relations, Trade, & Policy: 2021 and Beyond”
On Oct 12, 7-8:30pm Central:
Moderator: Susan Webb Yackee — director of the La Follette School of Public Affairs
Panelists:
- Menzie Chinn — professor of public affairs and economics
- Mark Copelovitch — professor of political science, public affairs, and international relations
- Tana Johnson ’01 — associate professor of public affairs and political science
- Jon Pevehouse — Vilas Distinguished Professor of Political Science: International Relations
Register here.