One Year Ahead Inflation Forecasts

 

Figure 1: CPI inflation year-on-year (black), median expected from Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue +), median expected (preliminary) from Michigan Survey of Consumers (red), median from NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (light green), forecast from Cleveland Fed (pink), mean from Coibion-Gorodnichenko firm expectations survey [light blue squares]. Source: BLS, University of Michigan via FRED and Investing.com, Reuters, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, NY Fed, Cleveland Fed and Coibion and Gorodnichenko. 

In terms of accuracy and bias, a new study by Bennett and Owyang (forthcoming) is very relevant.

Statements and Documentation on Russian Actions in Ukraine

From Human Rights Watch (Apr 3): “Ukraine: Apparent War Crimes in Russia-Controlled Areas: Summary Executions, Other Grave Abuses by Russian Forces”.

From Amnesty International (Apr 7): “Ukraine: Russian forces extrajudicially executing civilians in apparent war crimes – new testimony”

From UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) (March 28): “Mounting civilian deaths, mass destruction and catastrophic humanitarian situation as Russian Federation attacks Ukraine”

Bellingcat has been documenting the application of cluster bombs and artillery strikes against civilian populations.

 

 

Gasoline Prices – Looking Forward

Nowcasts for tomorrow’s CPI print is 1.1% m/m (Cleveland Fed), and Bloomberg consensus is 1.2%. In contrast, core CPI nowcast is 0.52%, consensus at 0.5%. The large gap is in large part attributable to gasoline prices, which rose 20% in March (all grades), even though the CPI weight of gasoline is only 3.8%. What do gasoline prices look like in April? This will depend on oil prices.

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