The Philadelphia Fed released the coincident index for June today. Wisconsin has re-attained economic activity levels recorded at the NBER peak of February 2020.
Republicans Aim to Raise Economic Policy Uncertainty… Again
Term Spread and Inflation Breakeven Declining, and Real Rates Still Low
All suggesting slowing growth…maybe
The Pace of Employment Growth in States Cutting UI Benefits
Is slower than for those that didn’t. From Steve Englander/Standard Charter Bank:
Inflation Now and 70 Years Ago
Inflation surged at the beginning of the Korean War, with the economy at full employment. Here’s CPI and PPI inflation then and now…
NBER Declares Recession Trough at 2020M04
From NBER today:
The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research maintains a chronology of the peaks and troughs of US business cycles. The committee has determined that a trough in monthly economic activity occurred in the US economy in April 2020. The previous peak in economic activity occurred in February 2020. The recession lasted two months, which makes it the shortest US recession on record.
Labor Shortages in a Neoclassical Framework
I keep on seeing organizations like the Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce Association cry about worker shortages, as here:
Guest Contribution: “Economics of the Pandemic in Asia, 2020”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Calla Wiemer (President, American Committee on Asian Economic Studies).
Forecasted Ten Year Interest Rate Trajectory Declines
From WSJ surveys:
Review of Subacchi, “The People’s Money: How China Is Building a Global Currency”
For those interested in the RMB, here’s my book review: