Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Paweł Skrzypczyński, economist at the National Bank of Poland. The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the National Bank of Poland.
Wisconsin Employment in September
DWD released September figures today. Nonfarm payroll employment trends sideways, as manufacturing and high contact services employment like leisure and hospitality services resume a divergence.
Treasury Ten Year Yield Forecasts
Little changed from July, at least from the Wall Street Journal’s survey of economists:
Recession before the Leaves Fall?
GDP Forecasts
The October Wall Street Journal survey of economists, now quarterly, is out. A substantial downshift in the forecasted level of GDP is apparent.
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-October
Here is a graph of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, including industrial production, which missed expectations (actual -1.3% vs. +0.2% Bloomberg consensus, m/m not annualized):
A Graphical Primer to Interpreting the Sources of Inflation in the Covid Era
For students in Econ 435, using model originally in Robert Hall and John Taylor, “Macroeconomics”, and shown in the ADAS handout.
Lumber Futures As Predictors
In assessing market views on future lumber prices, reader JohnH writes:
Futures markets aren’t foreseeing a decline in lumber prices any time soon.
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LS*0/futures-prices
Velocity Is Not Stable
I thought this had been determined half a century ago, but just to remind people in case they’d forgotten.
Real Lumber Prices
PPI indicates they are down: