No acceleration in growth rates, and short term growth prospects dim, but GDP level higher relative to October — but not November — survey.
Wisconsin Economic Outlook, November 2020
The Wisconsin Department of Revenue has released its Economic Outlook, dated November 22nd. The forecasts incorporate assumptions that include: “November IHS Markit forecast shows a slowing down of the economic recovery in the last quarter of 2020 and beginning of 2021. Several high-frequency indicators point to a further deceleration in October, but the forecast does not include a double dip. ….Wisconsin personal income growth accelerated in 2020 pushed by the federal stimulus funds, but it’s expected to decline 1.9% in 2021, as the fiscal stimulus fades. …The current forecast assumes no further fiscal stimulus and that a vaccine will be available by mid2021.”
Where Are You?
I’m teaching “Macroeconomic Policy” for upper level undergrads this semester. Obviously, the interpretation and suggested conduct of policy depends on how you view the world, which is hard to contextualize simply. But I think annotating this graph works great — and you can ask yourself — “Where am I?” (The “You are here” addresses my students…)
Risks of a Double Dip Rising? [updated]
[Original post, 12/3 5pm Pacific – updates graph for NFP, text in green]
That’s the message all around: The Hill “Slowing job growth raises fears of double-dip recession” (see also this), a CNN article has subheading “Double-dip recession fears”, Fortune has “TIAA CEO Roger Ferguson thinks we could be headed for a ‘double-dip recession'”, while CNBC “Virus surge is leading to a double-dip recession and dollar crash, economist Stephen Roach warns”.
ADP Private Nonfarm Payrolls in November
The increase of 307 thousand in private nonfarm payrolls (as reported by ADP) — under Bloomberg expectations of 410 thousand — suggests further deceleration in employment growth.
“Trifecta”
When the Biden economic team members were announced, I wondered if there was any pattern to discern in the locus of Republican attacks. As far as I can tell, it’s not expertise, it’s not ideological bent, it’s not what school you went to. But here is a Venn diagram to help you identify what makes you a “no-go”.
Business Cycle Indicators as of December 1st
With the release of monthly GDP numbers, we have the following picture of some of the key indicators followed by NBER:
Guest Contribution: “You don’t miss international cooperation until it’s gone”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate .
The New Economic Team?
As of 11/29. Can you tell a difference?
Trump’s Trade War by the NIPA Numbers
National Income and Product Accounts numbers that is.