Reader Bruce Hall writes yesterday:
Cases continue to escalate; deaths do not; hospitalizations are basically level. The hyperbole around cases is unfortunate because infections are not categorized for action since asymptomatic to severe are lumped together.
Just in time for the module on fiscal policy in my macro policy course, multipliers in a time of Covid-19. From a CBO working paper by Seliski, Betz, Chen, Demirel, Lee, and Nelson, “Key Methods That CBO Used to Estimate the Effects of Pandemic-Related Legislation on Output”.
With the release of industrial production figures today, the deceleration in economic activity continues, according to some key indicators noted by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC).
Given apparent gridlock in Washington – that is the gap between the administration and Senate Republicans on phase 4 recovery package – Wall Street economists and academics see the recovery somewhat differently. From the Initiative on Global Markets/FiveThirtyEight Covid panel round 10 survey (released October 12).
Statistics released by Wisconsin DWD show nonfarm payroll employment growing in line with US, but — like at the national level — at a decelerating pace.
This graph is for those who believe reports of negative outcomes Wisconsin are “fake news”.
Figure 1: Wisconsin current Covid-19 hospitalizations (blue, left log scale), fatalities as of date reported (red, right scale). Source: Covid Tracking Project, accessed 10/14/2020.
From Wisconsin State Journal (10/13/2020):
Citing inaction by the state Legislature, a St. Croix County judge on Monday rejected a request by a conservative legal group for a temporary injunction against Gov. Tony Evers’ statewide mask mandate.
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The GOP-led Legislature has met once since the pandemic began, in April, to take up legislation in response to COVID-19. Lawmakers and Evers ultimately signed what officials on both sides of the aisle described as “imperfect” legislation.
The package aimed to complement federal aid allocated to the state, included additional Medicaid funding, allowed for increased unemployment benefits from the federal government and waived a one-week waiting period for benefits until February. The bill also allowed the state budget committee to spend up to $75 million during the public health emergency on coronavirus-related needs, though the committee has not exercised that authority.
Vos and Fitzgerald did not respond to requests for comment on Monday.
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Johnson, who tested positive for COVID-19 earlier this month, said he is opposed to the governor’s mask mandate.
Slightly higher 2020 growth for advanced economies forecasted – but big challenges moving forward
Covid-19 related current hospitalizations are up; administratively defined fatalities are up slightly. However the pattern displayed in figure 1 is unsettling (a rejoinder to all those folks who think hospitalization is falling, and think cases rising is merely a reflection of more testing; e.g., here).
NY Fed, Atlanta Fed, St. Louis Fed, and IHS Markit released nowcasts today.
In contrast to earlier weeks, the most recent “excess fatality” count is solidly in the positive region, despite the severe under-reporting bias in the most recent observations. To see this, consider the most recent estimates for each of the previous vintages of “excess fatalities” calculated as actual-expected.