Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate. The underlying econometrics are spelled out in “The Virus, Vaccination, and Voting: An Econometric Analysis.” I am grateful for the excellent research assistance of Randy Kotti.
“this [Covid-19] pandemic ain’t 1918–never was, never will be”
— Comment by rick stryker, August 19, 2020.
Covid-19 Forecasts, One Year Ago and Today
One year ago (7/29):
IHME Projections for Deaths per capita In One Month, Two Months
IHME updated its forecasts yesterday. First the time series for total excess deaths:
Danger: When a Classical Scholar(/Ideologue) Discusses Inflation
Victor Davis Hanson, writing in a data-free commentary published by the Independent Institute : NOTE as of 7/26, the Independent Institute’s version of the article has disappeared; I add here another copy of the article, at some site called “American Greatness“. 10/26/2021, MDC.
“Rising Rents Threaten to Prop Up Inflation”
That’s the title of a NYT article today.
Missouri, Delta Variant and Economic Activity (So Far)
Three alarming graphs regarding the Covid spread in Missouri (from 7/19 WaPo), and some economic indicators:
Wisconsin Economic Activity in June
The Philadelphia Fed released the coincident index for June today. Wisconsin has re-attained economic activity levels recorded at the NBER peak of February 2020.
Republicans Aim to Raise Economic Policy Uncertainty… Again
Term Spread and Inflation Breakeven Declining, and Real Rates Still Low
All suggesting slowing growth…maybe