CBO released its projections for GDP under current law, and potential GDP yesterday.
Flash-mob finance
Modern communication infrastructure can facilitate swift simultaneous action by a large number of people. If used to coordinate a surprise attack, an organized mob can overcome a store or even the capitol building. Is Wall Street the next target?
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The Economy at Trump’s End
In recovery (as Jim noted using GDP), but not recovered. And maybe even declining for certain key indicators.
The COVID recession is over
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 4.0% annual rate in the fourth quarter. That’s well above the 3.1% average growth that the U.S. experienced over 1947-2019, and follows a 28.8% logarithmic annual growth rate seen in Q3.
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Guest Contribution: “Republicans oppose deficits only when Democrats hold the White House”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Business Cycle Indicators as of January 26th
New information coming out on Friday, employment in a week and a half. For now:
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus for January as of 1/26 (blue square), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (1/4/2021 release), NBER, and author’s calculations.
OECD Weekly Tracker of Economic Activity
Real time estimates of GDP based on Google Trends and machine learning for OECD and G-20 countries, here. Here’s the current US GDP nowcast:
Aggregate Wisconsin Employment Stabilizes, High Contact Services Decline
DWD data released yesterday indicates nonfarm payroll employment broke their two month decline. Private employment rose as well, while manufacturing versus accommodation/food services trend diverged. State and local government employment continued their decline.
Farm Income during the Trade War
Farm income rose – but income from selling farm products fell. Were it not for direct farm support, income would’ve fallen.
“Will Joe Biden’s fiscal stimulus overheat the American economy?”
That’s the title of a new article in the Economist:
There are three main reasons to suspect overheating might be on the cards: emerging evidence that the downturn may prove temporary; generous stimulus; and the Federal Reserve’s monetary-policy strategy.