So far, the lower paid are seeing the biggest gains…
CPI Inflation in September
Headline slightly above Bloomberg consensus (0.4% vs. 0.3% m/m) and core at consensus (0.4%), but month-on-month inflation rates are down relative to peaks earlier in the year. Re-opening inflation rates are decreasing in importance, as energy rises. The inflation is becoming more broad-based.
One Year Expectations on the Eve of the CPI Release
NY Fed’s consumer survey runs hot at 5.3%, hotter than MIchigan’s 4.6%.
IMF: “Recovery During a Pandemic”
The IMF’s October 2021 World Economic Outlook forecasts are out.
Just How Small Is the Impact of (Measured) Expected Inflation?
The debate over the role of expectations in inflation determination [e.g., discourse over Rudd’s working paper] gives me a sense of deja vu. That being said, it’s always useful to see what the data say, when running a simple OLS regression on a basic expectations augmented Phillips curve (without a statement on forecasting, which often includes conditioning on future developments). I examine PCE inflation over the 1986-2021Q2 period.
Guest Contribution: “Corporate Taxation and U.S. International Financial Integration: A consolidated-by-nationality approach”
Today, we are fortunate to be able to present a guest contribution written by Agustín Bénétrix and André Sanchez Pacheco (Trinity College Dublin).
Parsing the September Employment Release
Overall and private nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment surprised on the downside — but the fact that private missed by a smaller amount suggests that the slowdown is a little less pronounced than indicated by the headline number.
Predicting Global Imbalances on the Eve of Covid-19
Just out, my paper with Hiro Ito, “Requiem for ‘Blame It on Beijing'” [link thru Nov 28] (final version submitted on December 25, 2019):
Business Cycle Indicators with NFP
While there was a big downside NFP surprise (194K vs. Bloomberg consensus of 500K), the overall picture is not much altered:
Long Term Market-Based Inflation Expectations
Still averaging around 1.7%, for the next five years.