Employment numbers for July were released for today.
Forecaster Views on the Overheating Hypothesis
Earlier in the year, one fear was that excessive fiscal stimulus would push up inflation, push up long term yields. Professional forecasters don’t seem to view that outcome as imminent.
X-Files, 2021 Edition
It seems every decade or so, there is a bout of paranoia about government statistics, to wit, a reader asserts the BLS is hiding data on median wages:
The Outlook – The August Survey of Professional Forecasters
Growth prospects decelerate, while the CPI level looks higher, according to the August Survey of Professional Forecasters.
Lumber Prices
Fell 34.3% (not annualized, in log terms) in July.
Yet More Alternative Real Wage Series, through Time
From FRED: Employed full time: Median usual weekly real earnings: Wage and salary workers: 16 years and over (LES1252881600Q), graphed along the familiar average hourly earnings per hour, total private industry, ex-nonproduction and supervisory workers, deflated by CPI:
Average and Median Wages through Time
Reader JohnH criticizes the use of average wages as indicators of the representative compensation, and suggests use of Social Security Administration data. Here are several measures taken from SSA, deflated by the CPI.
Real Wages through July
Reader JohnH notes that real wages year-on-year have fallen in July, as reported in the real earnings report. In times of big movements in variables, I find it useful to look at the actual time series.
PPI and CPI for July
From BLS today:
Inflation Deceleration – Multiple Measures
In today’s release, headline m/m CPI inflation was down sharply, from 11.4% to 5.8%, annualized. Various measures derived from the data in the release, including the inflation rate of the sticky price CPI — that focuses on infrequently changed prices — declined slightly, suggesting easing pressures. The trimmed CPI — which excises highly volatile components — was also falling indicating it’s not outliers driving July decreases.