Kalshi betting right now is for 300K reduction in force for the Federal government (h/t Torsten Slok):
“so called economists at the Fed”
That’s EJ Antoni talking on something called Wealthion at minute 3:30.
A Fed Inflation Credibility Index under Trump
Using 5 year ahead inflation expectations from the Michigan survey, not so much erosion in Trump 1.0. Trump 2.0 so far is another story.
Guess I Picked the Wrong Week to…Stop Recommending Vaccinations
From the betting markets (Kalshi.com) yesterday:
The Mother of All Magic Asterisks
The House Budget, as expected, is not a serious document — see the tables. I’ll skip the fantasy spending cuts, and focus on revenue plans. From CRFB:
Dis-Inversion and Re-Inversion over the Last 3 Months
Not sure what it means, but I suspect heightened growth anxieties for the 4 month to 3 years horizon.
Consumer Expectations Crash, 1 Year Ahead Inflation Expectations Soar as 5 Year Ahead Hits Record
5 year ahead inflation at 3.5%, highest since 1995M04. From Michigan Survey of Consumers:
Bringing Prices Down: A Progress Report
We’re a month into Trump 2.0. We don’t have February’s prices yet, but since Trump was going to do everything “Day 1”, I thought it useful to take a look at various indices.
What — If Anything — Do Re-inverting Term Spreads Mean?
Open question – we’re not quite there yet.
No Recession until 2025Q4 (Assuming Reciprocal Tariffs w/Retaliation) [graph corrected!]
And CBO’s January projection: