Upward revisions for both indices from University of Michigan Survey of Consumers:
Guest Contribution: “What we now know about Jimmy Carter’s presidency”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. An earlier version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Instantaneous PCE Core Inflation below 2%
With August data:
Business Cycle Indicators – August 2024 and Annual Updates
Still hard to see the recession in (preliminary) August 2024 data.
Betting Markets on the Election, Again
Perhaps someone can tell me why we get such different bets depending on platform (and why doesn’t RealClearPolitics include PredictIt)?
Decomposing the Revision to GDO
One of the interesting aspects of the annual revision is that, contrary to what happens with typical (non-annual) revisions, GDI moved toward GDP, rather than the reverse.
Per Capita Growth under Trump vs. Biden
Growth in the first three years of Biden was 3.0%, vs 2.1% under Trump (pre-pandemic).
Lessons in Why We Don’t Judge Recessions on the Basis of GDP
Nowcasting Wisconsin GDP
Suppose it’s the end of August, and one want to get the best estimate of Wisconsin real GDP for Q2. As of August, only Q1 Wisconsin GDP is available. What’s the best guess of of Q2 GDP, keeping in mind the number of monthly indicators at the state level is much lower than that for the Nation. Here’s my tentative answer.
Diffusion Indexes for August
CFNAI and state-level coincident indices suggest softening in activity.