Tomorrow, we’ll get a reading on January egg prices at the consumer level. With futures prices at about $5.2 in December and $6.65 in January, I’d guess retail egg prices will have gone up. Futures are at $7.65 so far in February.
Year-Ahead CPI Inflation Expectations in January: 3%-3.3%
From Michigan, NY Fed, and Atlanta Fed SoFIE:
Business Cycle Indicators, with Monthly GDP and Household Employment Research Series
S&P Global Market Intelligence has put up monthly GDP through December. Here’s a picture of NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee indicators along with monthly GDP.
Inflation Expectations, by Party
The Michigan survey of Consumers revealed that Republican respondents expected one year inflation to be zero as of January 2025. From Torsten Slok:
EPU after Reciprocal Tariffs Announced, Before New Steel, Aluminum Tariffs
Up, up and away.
One Year Inflation Expectations Upside Surprise
Michigan 1 year expectations at 4.3% vs 3.3% Bloomberg consensus.
Ante-mutua portoriis EPU
…or I wonder how “reciprocal tariffs” will affect economic policy uncertainty measures.
Business Cycle Indicators with January Employment
Change in NFP below consensus, but previous months upwardly revised. Big benchmark revision (-610 thousand), but even larger — 2 million upward — revision to December 2024 civilian employment.
*Reported* Civilian Employment Jumps 2.4 Million (1.5%)(!)
I.e., Beware the footnotes. New population controls results in updated 2025 employment figures (but 2024 not updated). Much of the purported gap between NFP (establishment survey) and adjusted civilian employment (household survey) disappears as a consequence.
Costing Trump Tax Priorities
From CRFB, $5-$11.2 trn over 10 years: