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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

“Trump administration wants to un-fire nuclear safety workers but can’t figure out how to reach them”

From NBC. I’d say emblematic of the smash and attempt to repair approach of the Trump 2.0 administration.

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This entry was posted on February 15, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Economists, Some Consumers, Believe Y/Y Inflation Will Rise

Michigan Survey of Consumers and yesterday’s release of the Survey of Professional Forecasters agree.

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This entry was posted on February 15, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Who Gave this Guy an Economics Ph.D. (cont’d)?

Remember when Heritage Foundation’s EJ Antoni posted on X this graph?

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This entry was posted on February 14, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

NBER BCDC and Alternative Business Cycle Indicators for January

In the first set, industrial production continues to rise (as did employment). In the second set, while civilian employment and civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept rose, manufacturing output flat, and real retails sales fell noticeably.

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This entry was posted on February 14, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Manufacturing Productivity When Tariffs Last Bloomed

Going to be some outrageously crazy arguments about the merits of tariffs coming. Just to remind people, higher measured productivity is not one of the plausible outcomes.

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This entry was posted on February 13, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Food Prices – CPI (at home), PPI

Not apparently going down:

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This entry was posted on February 13, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Douglas Irwin in WSJ “‘Reciprocal’ Tariffs Make No Sense”

From WSJ today:

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This entry was posted on February 13, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Inflation Surprises Illustrated

For CPI and PPI vis a vis Bloomberg consensus:

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This entry was posted on February 13, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Eggs Retail up 18%, PPI 32% Month-on-Month(!)

PPI figure on seasonally adjusted by author data. NSA m/m change is 36.5% (log differences).

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This entry was posted on February 13, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Egg Prices in January — $4.95/Dozen Grade A, Large

Outpacing ERS forecast. Implied futures suggest higher prices yet.

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This entry was posted on February 12, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

  • Policy Uncertainty Spikes
  • Nowcasts and Tracking of “Core GDP”
  • Gold: The Challenger to Dollar Reserves?
  • CEA Unleashed!
  • “That Drop in Consumer Income in May Was a False Recession Alarm”

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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