Employment and production were declining before the pandemic. March employment is roughly the same as three years ago. Production is down 7.8% in April vs. three years prior.
Debt Dynamics, and the Real Interest Rate
Debt-to-GDP dynamics are described by this expression.
Business Cycle Indicators as of June 1
Monthly GDP figures were released by IHS-Markit today, showing a rebound in April. In the context of key macro indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee:
Sixty Years of Money, GDP and the Price Level
Looks like this:
Real Borrowing Costs for the US Treasury: May 2021
As of May 2021, the nominal 10 year Treasury rate is 1.6%. The real rate is -0.9%.
Output Gaps and Interest Rates – Survey of Professional Forecasters vs. Troika
The White House economic assumptions (based on February data) released today in the FY ’22 budget imply full employment output at year’s end, contrasting with 1.4% using Survey of Professional Forecasters (from May)
Guest Contribution: “Statistics and the Pandemic”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations
and expectations for May…
Business Cycle Indicators and Inflation, End-May 2021
April personal income and consumption figures were released today, along with real manufacturing and trade industry sales. Here’s a depiction of these figures in the context of key macro indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee:
Inflation Squeeze on Wages?
Relative compression vis a vis recent past (not controlling for composition), but still up since the onset of the pandemic.