With October industrial production reported today, we have this picture of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee‘s key indicators:
The Real Cost of Treasury Borrowing
Halfway through November, TIPS 10 year at -0.876% and ten year adjusted for median expected inflation (from November Survey of Professional Forecasters, released today) at -1.264%.
A Double Dip Recession – Odds Rising?
Baseline scenario is for continued — albeit moderating growth — at least according to the WSJ November survey. However, the reality of rapidly ascending Covid-19 caseload, hospitalization, and fatality rates may force a quick rethink. From The Hill today:
Treasury Borrowing Rates – Nominal and Real
Rising government debt-to-GDP ratios should be viewed in the context of borrowing costs. Below, three-and-a-half decades of ten year Treasury yields.
A Public Service Announcement: Judy Shelton Does Not Believe in US Government Statistics
The below is a republication of a post from July 19, 2019 entitled “What Does Judy Shelton Believe GDP Growth and Inflation Are in 2019?” in response to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnel’s invocation of cloture on the nomination of Judy Shelton to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
In a 2015 Cato Institute session, Fed Board Nominee Judy Shelton discusses whether to trust or not official GDP and inflation statistics (she says no — see 1:07:07) (h/t Sam Bell).
The Economic Outlook – WSJ November Survey
No acceleration in growth rates, but GDP level higher relative to October survey; few see a true “V”, or a true “W”.
Transition Teams – Economics
TPM has the list of transition team members. Below I reproduce those involving in economics.
Manufacturing Employment, Hours and Output and the Trade War, Pre-Covid-19
Can we settle on a verdict on whether the trade war saved manufacturing? One way is to examine how the manufacturing sector fared.
The Trade Balance Today, and Near Future
If we wanted to reduce the trade deficit — let’s say because we wanted to increase aggregate demand and hence employment, rather than some atavistic belief the deficits are bad — then we will probably need to convincingly deal with the pandemic. Remember, the trade deficit (in NIPA terms) is now bigger than it was the day Mr. Trump took office.
Covid-19 Is Still Here: Implications for Employment
A reminder that it’s still possible to save tens of thousands of lives, with a return to competence and science in the waning days of the Trump administration (it goes without saying management would improve immeasurably in the Biden-Harris administration). Covid-19 hospitalizations are soaring. Seven day rolling average of deaths is at 970, showing a rapid ascent (it’s rising 19% per week). How long can employment continue to grow as the pandemic again surges?