Anonymous reader rtd took issue with my characterization of the modification of the US Citizenship and Immigration Services in this post, characterizing it as “…disingenuous at best and to me seems to be grossly negligent…”. He takes up my invitation to write his comprehensive response, for which I thank him/her.
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Gotta Tell My Mom
[edited to quote current Mission Statement verbatim, per rtd‘s comment; new text in red, original text below in blue]
America under Mr. Trump is transmuted. US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) modifies its mission statement from:
“USCIS secures America’s promise as a nation of immigrants by providing accurate and useful information to our customers, granting immigration and citizenship benefits, promoting an awareness and understanding of citizenship, and ensuring the integrity of our immigration system.” [emphasis added – mdc]
to:
“U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services administers the nation’s lawful immigration system, safeguarding its integrity and promise by efficiently and fairly adjudicating requests for immigration benefits while protecting Americans, securing the homeland, and honoring our values.”
[changed text 2/24 12PM Pacific – thanks to rtd for pointing out that “as a nation of immigrants” is not the only thing modified] Original text reads:
…to:
“USCIS secures America’s promise
as a nation of immigrantsby providing accurate and useful information to our customers, granting immigration and citizenship benefits, promoting an awareness and understanding of citizenship, and ensuring the integrity of our immigration system.”
The head of USCIS stated that this change was not at the direction of the White House.
Some Additional Possible Covariates for Mass Shooting Casualties
Following up on the other candidate variables in this post.
Figure 1: Mass shooting deaths (black), wounded (gray), both 12 month trailing moving average. February observation for data through 2/23. Source: Mother Jones and author’s calculations.
Economic Report of the President, Table 8-2: Projected Productivity Illustrated
Jason Furman points us out to his favorite Table 8-2 in the Economic Report of the President, 2018, released yesterday, with particular reference to the productivity assumption.
Figure 1: Nonfarm real output per hour, 1947Q1=1 (blue), Trump Administration forecast of 2.6% (red), historical average (1953Q2-2017Q3) growth rate of 2% (pink). NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS via FRED, NBER, CEA and author’s calculations.
The World-Wide Fama Puzzle Reversal
In my previous post, I recounted “The New Fama Puzzle” as it applied to dollar exchange rates, with focus on the euro/dollar rate. A quick observation: the reversal also appears for non-US dollar based exchange rates (against euro, yen, pound).
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With Bated Breath… Economic Report of the President, 2018
Fact-check please!
The Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balance Post-Tax Cut/Spending Bill
Not good. From GS Sunday.
And nary a peep from purported conservative deficit hawks and/or Tea Party folk.
Interest Differentials and Exchange Rate Changes Before and After the Global Crisis
Before 2007M08
and After 2007M09
If the joint hypothesis of uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) and rational expectations –- sometimes termed the unbiasedness hypothesis — held, then the slope of the regression lines (in red) would be indistinguishable from unity. In fact, they are significantly different from that value. This pattern of coefficient reversal holds up for other dollar-based exchange rates, as well as for other currency pairs (with a couple exceptions). The fact that the coefficient is positive in the post-global financial crisis period is what we term “the New Fama puzzle”.
Trundling to Trade War
With a national security fig leaf?
Some Time Series Correlates of Mass Shooting Statistics
Figure 1: Mass shooting deaths (red), wounded (pink). February observation for data through 2/14. Light blue shading denotes assault weapon ban. Orange shading denotes implementation HJ Res 40. Source: Mother Jones, news accounts for 2/14, and author’s calculations.