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Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

The July Trade Release

Trade deficit grows. US-China goods trade deficit is now growing too.

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This entry was posted on September 29, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

Pondering Elevated Wisconsin Covid-19 Infection Rates Resulting from a Successful Judgment for Wisconsin Institute for Law and Liberty

Striking down Governor Evers’s mask mandate in the name of process means fatalities almost assuredly must be higher than otherwise. From AP today:

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This entry was posted on September 29, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

Swing State Wisconsin: The Major Issues

Presented by UW–Madison’s La Follette School of Public Affairs and WisPolitics.com (October 2, 12 noon central)

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This entry was posted on September 28, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

The Impending Food-Service Sector Disaster

From Torsten Slok, now at Apollo.

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This entry was posted on September 27, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

Using One’s Eyes

A reader writes, in reference to CDC Covid-19 data on fatalities and excess fatalities, and how the estimates change over time as new data come in:

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This entry was posted on September 27, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

‘Twixt Peer Reviewed and Bits on the Web

What to cite when the research frontier is moving fast…

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This entry was posted on September 26, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

Are Covid-19 Deaths Falling?

I read some claims that Covid-19 fatalities are declining. I want to — again — remind readers about the hazards of interpreting (1) administrative data, and (2) data revisions.

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This entry was posted on September 24, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

Enhanced Benefits and Outlook: Continuation vs. End

From Wells Fargo Economics today:

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This entry was posted on September 24, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

Canada/US: Cumulative and New Covid-19 Fatalities per Capita

A reasonable person could ask why, if we’ve done such a superb job of managing the crisis in the US, we’ve done so poorly vis a vis Canada. From FT, today.

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This entry was posted on September 22, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

The Pandemic in Wisconsin: Projections

As of today, the Covid Tracking Project reports 7 day rolling average of 4.29 deaths/day. IHME at UW projects a fatality rate of 14.83/day by Nov 1st, while Youyang Gu‘s model (forecasting performance discussed here) projects 12/day. Both of these exceed the 7-day rolling average of 11.21 recorded April 12th (according to IHME)

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This entry was posted on September 22, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

  • The Financial System: Some Graphs
  • Nowcasted “Core GDP” Decelerates
  • It Can’t Happen Here: Inflation Edition
  • All Instantaneous Core Inflation Measures Rose in July
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Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 11.7 (describes  2025:Q1)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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